JutPicks
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Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!
I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 139 wins and 102 losses for a gain of +28.97 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite play for Friday.
Martin Perez (TEX) under 2.5 Earned Runs (-141)
Line available at Caesers Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Let’s back one of the most surprising pitchers this season in all of baseball. Martin Perez appeared in the first All-Star Game of his career and it was well deserved. He has an ERA of 2.59 which ranks 9th-best for qualifying pitchers. I tend to stay away from meaningless stats but Perez has an ERA of 1.5 during his 10 night starts this season and this game will be played under the bright lights in Los Angeles.
The Los Angeles Angels have struggled in all aspects this month. They have a record of 5-16 which is 2nd-worst in all of baseball behind the Washington Nationals. They’re hitting a league-low .199 during that span and an even worse .190 against left-handed pitching. Perez looked phenomenal in his last start. He pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 run. On the season, he’s under this prop in 13 of 19 starts.
Mike Trout is still sidelined for the Angels which bodes well for Perez. Trout has 4 career extra-base hits off Perez which includes an RBI double back in April when Perez allowed 3 runs to the Angels.
In 12 games against left-handed starters since June, the Angels have failed to score 3 runs in 11 of them! Look for Perez to continue to impress all of baseball during his career year.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners under 1.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (-140)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Justin Verlander has been our most popular player to back during the season. After missing all of last season with Tommy John, Verlander has put on a show that nobody was expecting. He’s currently 2nd in the race to win the AL Cy Young award from a betting standpoint at +260. Tonight, he’ll face off against a familiar foe in the Seattle Mariners. This will be the 6th start against the Mariners this season. From a hitter’s standpoint, seeing an opposing pitcher multiple times in a season can be an advantage, but we’re not talking about any ordinary pitcher. This is future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander on the bump.
Verlander has been absolutely dominant in the first 5 innings this season. In 18 starts, he’s held opponents under 2 runs in 14 of them and that doesn’t include a game earlier this month against the Kansas City Royals when he allowed 1 run through 6, but the Astros made errors in the 4th inning to account an unearned run.
Even with the Mariners putting together a great month of July with a record of 17 wins and 5 losses, they’ve struggled against right-handed pitching. In July, they’re hitting .220 and an on-base percentage under .300; both bottom 10 during that span.
Verlander is showing no signs of slowing down. In his 1st start after the all-star break, ironically against the Seattle Mariners, Verlander pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 run. He’s held Seattle to under 2 runs in the first 5 innings in 4 of 5 starts this season and I see another magical 5 innings incoming from Verlander.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
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