JutPicks
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Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!
I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 97 wins and 76 losses for a gain of +14.34 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite plays for Saturday.
Blake Snell (SDP) under 6.5 Ks (-125)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I’m not one to play strikeout props often but when I do, I’ve been pretty successful. We’re targeting San Diego Padres southpaw Blake Snell tonight against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies strikeout numbers versus left-handed pitching has continued to drop since the start of the season. In the last 30 days they’ve dropped to 18%; 8th lowest in the majors. During the 1st 2 months of the season, they were striking out at a 25% rate. That’s the definition of improvement.
Snell faced off against this Phillies squad back in May and 5 of his 11 outs were strikeouts. I don’t see that happening tonight with how selective the Phillies have been at the plate. That goes hand and hand into our next topic; Snells walk issue. He’s surrounded at least 3 walks in 4 of 6 starts this season. The Phillies see close to 4 pitches per at bat which ranks top 7 in all of baseball. I expect a ton of counts to reach 2-3 balls and for Snell to have trouble locating.
The last time a left-handed starter recorded at least 7 strikeouts versus the Phillies? May 10th! That’s over 15 games against left-handed starters that failed to reach this plateau.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies
Miles Mikolas (STL) to record a win: Yes (+110)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Miles Mikolas has revenge on his mind. His last start against the Chicago Cubs did not go his way. He allowed 6 earned runs through 5 innings. Since then, he’s allowed only 4 earned runs in his last 3 games combined, which includes a near no-hitter.
There are a couple of trends we’re backing with this pick. First, the St. Louis Cardinals are 19-13 when coming off a loss and they were just shut out by familiar foe Kyle Hendricks. Tonight, the Cubs are starting 30-year-old Adrian Sampson, who is making his first start of the season after being recalled from Triple-A. Secondly, the Cubs have a record of 14-19 following a win, which is bottom 10 in the majors.
The middle of the order for the Cardinals is loaded. NL MVP favorite Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .308 against right-handed pitching along with 13 home runs. Clean-up hitter Nolan Arenado is not far behind. He’s hitting .285 with 9 home runs.
This is a perfect time for the Cardinals offense to come along with Mikolas on the mound. In 3 of the last 6 games that Mikolas has started, the Cardinals offense combined for just 1 run. A big part of that was the fact that they were facing off against Corbin Burnes twice and AL CY Young favorite Shane McClanahan. It gets a lot easier for them today.
Give me the better pitcher and lineup at home all day. The Cardinals should secure an early lead and never look back with Mikolas on the mound.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs
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