We’ve got a huge MLB slate on the cards for Wednesday, and what better way to enhance the excitement than by betting some player props? There are so many games that there is plenty of value on offer, and I’ve worked my way through all of them to deliver my two best props of the day. Before we dive in, make sure you check out all of our picks on the money line/run line and total.
Mike Trout Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Getting Mike Trout’s total bases at a number he’s consistently beaten this season for plus-odds against a below-average pitcher? Sign me up. Trout has continued to stay hot amidst an unbelievable start to the season where’s generated a stunning .481 wOBA and 250 wRC+, and even recently hit the hardest home run of his entire career (115.5 MPH exit velo), demonstrating that the most dangerous hitter on the planet is even more dangerous than ever. Just as importantly, Trout finally has other legitimate threats in the lineup (Ohtani, Walsh, Fletcher the prime examples), meaning that opposing pitchers can’t cherry-pick him out as the one candidate to pitch around, creating more pitches to hit and of course a better chance of going over 1.5 bases.
As far as the matchup goes, both analytics and surface stats suggest that Texas Rangers starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz is likely overrated in this spot. ‘Folty’ had a solid beginning to his career, with xFIPs in 2016-2018 ranging from 3.77 to 4.60, but has really tailed off since then, including a 7.88 xFIP in the 2020 short season and a 4.76 xFIP thus far in 2021. He doesn’t have anywhere near the raw stuff to overpower Trout or many of the other Angels, and with Jose Quintana starting on the bump for the Angels, this is a game I could see including a lot of fireworks.
Trout hit yet another home run last night and has shown no signs of slowing down. I fully expect him to stay hot in a game that should put plenty of runs on the board, with wind blowing heavily out towards center field and a less than compelling array of pitchers on the bump.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels.
Freddie Freeman Over 2.0 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-130)
Don’t let Freddie Freeman get hot: after a “slow” start to the season, the 2020 NL MVP winner has hits in 8 of his last 10 games, and 2 or more H/R/R in 6 of his last 10. Perhaps if this was the Corey Kluber of yesteryear, this spot would be a pass. But at this point, there’s perhaps no better stay-hot spot than against a right-handed starter still struggling to regain velocity and command after a major injury. Freeman has dominated RHPs over his career, with a .397 wOBA against RHP compared to a .341 wOBA vs LHP.
Due to a few unfortunate injuries – the most recent being season-ending surgery in 2020 – Kluber’s career has very quickly regressed from Cy Young form to fringe MLB starter. His xFIP has fallen off a cliff from 2017 to 2021 (2.52 2017, 3.08 2018, 4.88 2019, 4.87 2021), and even before then, he’s traditionally been less effective vs lefties than righties, demonstrated by an opposing wOBA of .305 vs LHB and .264 vs RHP. With no pitcher hitting, the dynamic Braves lineup becomes even more efficient, and Freeman will have tons of opportunities to deal major damage in a small park with reported winds up to 15 MPH blowing outward.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees.
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