Javan Shouey
Wednesday’s MLB slate of games is packed with potential betting angles, but my favorite is in the matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers. With both teams having their aces on the mound I am favoring the under on the posted total through the first 5 innings. Let’s dive in!
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers first 5 innings under 3.5 runs (-106)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds. Risking 1u.
Logan Webb has historically been dominant when pitching in his home ballpark, and to begin the 2025 season the right-hander has been dominant regardless of venue. Webb has posted a 2.40 ERA with 39 strikeouts across his first 5 starts this season, spanning a combined 30 innings of work. His underlying metrics are even more impressive with a 1.63 FIP that ranks 2nd best among qualified MLB starters, and a 26.7% K-BB% that sits as his career-best mark. Webb was lights out in his first home start of the season, tossing 7 scoreless frames against the Cincinnati Reds while racking up 10 strikeouts along the way. He struck out 12 Angels in his last outing and should continue his roll against a Milwaukee lineup that is just around league average against right-handed pitching so far this season.
Freddy Peralta has also been sharp to begin his 2025 campaign, allowing no more than 2 runs in any of his 5 starts including 5 shutout innings against a hot Athletics lineup in his last outing. Peralta is a strikeout artist capable of racking them up with the best pitchers in the sport, but he is also limiting the oppositions quality of contact well this season. The right-hander ranks 77th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed with an 84th percentile xBA so far, and his 3.26 SIERA suggests his success has not been a fluke. San Francisco has been solid offensively so far against right-handed pitching, but Peralta should benefit from pitching this game in a pitcher-friendly park that tends to suppress power. I favor the under on the posted total of 3.5 through the first 5 innings on Wednesday between the Brewers and the Giants.
