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While NFL is still king on Monday night, particularly with the Jets vs 49ers game, don’t forget about the 9-game MLB slate we have on tap today. Let’s dive into my best MLB player prop bets for Monday, September 9. Also don’t forget that you can find out our experts’ MLB picks for today’s matchups.
Philadelphia Phillies Over 3.5 runs first 7 innings (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I apologize to anyone without DraftKings, as this is an exclusive DraftKings market. Nevertheless, let’s talk about our reasoning for attacking this market. The Phillies team total for the game is 4.5, with similar vig to our first 7 innings total wager. But the Phillies are -225 on the money line and may not even bat in the bottom of the 9th inning. Pivoting to 3.5 runs through 7 innings is our best bet here.
The Phillies return home after a 6-game road trip starting in Toronto and ending in Miami, where they dropped the last 2 games. But the Phillies are king at Citizens Bank Park. They average 5.08 runs at home, which ranks 2nd in baseball. They’ll be without cleanup hitter Alec Bohm and backup Edmundo Sosa, but the top of this lineup is as lethal as it gets and can provide runs in a hurry.
The Tampa Bay Rays will open with RHP Cole Sulser and then hand the ball off to LHP Tyler Alexander and the rest of the bullpen. The Rays pen is no slouch and has continuously provided solid innings for the Rays, but this Phillies team reigns supreme at home. In the last 30 days at home, the Phillies rank in the top 10 in batting average and strikeout rate and just outside the top 10 in BB%, slugging and on-base percentage.
Read our full Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction
Paul Skenes Under 4.5 hits allowed (-140)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The pitch count rumors for Paul Skenes were swept under the rug in his last game, as Skenes threw 100 pitches across 5 innings thanks to 4 walks. He allowed 5 baserunners through the first 2 innings but escaped without allowing a single run. Tonight, Skenes will battle it out at home against the Miami Marlins — an offense that has seen the baseball well lately. Nonetheless, I’m backing Skenes and his hits-allowed prop that has cashed in half his starts since the all-star break. Skenes will pitch on his regular 6-day rest as the Pirates went to a 6-man rotation before cutting Domingo German after his outing on Wednesday. I don’t believe the Pirates want to see Skenes throw 100+ pitches again, as they sit 11 games out of the Wild Card race. Even against a scorching hot Marlins offense against RHP, I’m backing Skenes and a potential pitch limit.
Lock in today’s MLB parlay picks at +960 odds
