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After a small Thursday slate and NFL taking priority, the MLB is back with all 30 teams in action and the Diamondbacks-Cubs kicking off the slate at 2:20 E.T. All-Star Zac Gallen takes the mound at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing in. He headlines our top MLB player prop bet of the day, but be sure to also check out our MLB predictions for every matchup on the docket.
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Zac Gallen (ARI) Over 16.5 outs (-130)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is one of the few times this season we’re getting a 16.5 outs line on Zac Gallen. His last two starts have pretty much knocked him out of the NL Cy Young Award race, but the Diamondbacks are currently holding onto the final Wild Card spot. A quality outing from Gallen is just what the Diamondbacks need and for Gallen to get his confidence back to conclude the regular season.
Gallen will get the opportunity to pitch at Wrigley Field, during the day, with the wind blowing in. Over 10 MPH to be exact, which can make or break a bet like this. Now, the Cubs are sitting pretty in the 2nd Wild Card spot, but against a RHP like Gallen, they could struggle. Batters like Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, and Dansby Swanson have not been successful against Gallen in the past. Those 3 have combined for just 3 hits in 29 at-bats against him. If Gallen can find a groove through the bottom of the order, we’re looking at 6+ innings today which is the norm for Gallen.
The dream would be getting Gallen at home, but there’s a reason we’re getting this line. He’s much worse on the road, but is still over in 10/15 starts. His last two starts came against the Orioles and Dodgers, where he recorded 16 outs each and threw 101 and 99 pitches. The softer matchup against the Cubs is a prime spot for Gallen to bounce back.
Don’t miss today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets
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Andrew Abbott (CIN) Over 1.5 walks/STL Cardinals over 1.5 runs (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Cardinals, please don’t ruin this. The Cardinals will need to be disciplined against Andrew Abbott who they saw back in June where he issued 3 walks but no runs. The hope is the familiarity will do us justice and cash this player prop for the 11th time in 17 starts this season. Abbott’s K rate ranks in the 73rd percentile in all of baseball, but his chase rate ranks below league average. In terms of his BB%, which is all that matters tonight, he ranks in the bottom 36th percentile. Solid metrics that point to us cashing this bet.
If we take a look at Cardinals from a BB% standpoint, it’s extremely encouraging. In the last 30 days against LHP, they rank in the top 10. Out of the last 10 LH starters to face off against the Cardinals, 7 of them have issued at least 2 walks.
Abbott’s other props make me seem to believe he may struggle tonight. His earned runs prop is set at 2.5 with heavy juice on the over. He’s projected to pitch into the 6th inning as he’s recorded at least 16 outs in 12 of 17 starts. That should be plenty of enough time for the Cardinals to find runners on via the walk and cross home plate at least twice which they’ve done in 5 of 6 games in September.
The Reds are also featured in today’s +813 mega parlay
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