Javan Shouey
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For the last 15 months, I have shared my sports betting picks and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and I’m more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Thursday’s MLB slate, but be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s matchups.
JP Sears (OAK) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-105) (0.5U)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
This is a wacky slate with only 7 games on tap. MLB is likely paying their respects to the opening night of NFL, but I still found a play worth recommending.
JP Sears is an under-the-radar pitcher who was acquired in the Frankie Montas deal, and he has impressed as a member of the Athletics. In 5 starts spanning 27.1 IP, Sears has allowed a combined 8 earned runs, with only 1 start of 3 earned runs allowed. Sears does allow too many base hits at times but is above average in walk rate and barrel rate. He throws first-pitch strikes 66.1% of the time and that helps set up his slider. Sears relies on his fastball a bit too much for my liking but has an above-average ground ball rate and a well above-average pop-up rate this season, which helps him get out of jams. His line drive rate is 8.6% lower than the league average and that should play well against a White Sox lineup that is middle of the pack in that category.
Sears doesn’t go very deep, having averaged only 77.2 pitches per start in his first 5 games with Oakland. The most pitches he has seen was 82 and the entire Oakland bullpen should be available behind him once he reaches that general range. His outs recorded line is set at 15.5 but with significant juice to the under. The White Sox first 5 innings team total is set at only 1.5 runs. To get another full run while having a strong idea of the pitcher’s workload is crucial in this play for me.
Of the last 12 left-handed pitchers to face the White Sox, 9 of them allowed 2 or fewer earned runs. This includes Devin Smeltzer, Daniel Lynch, Konnor Pilkington, Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic twice, Daniel Norris and Tommy Henry. None of those pitchers are established major-leaguers and I have found myself impressed when watching Sears this season. When he was a member of the Yankees at the beginning of the year, Sears produced back-to-back 5-inning starts with 0 runs combined, and the game against Baltimore was the one that caught my attention. With the Oakland Coliseum providing a fantastic pitcher-friendly park behind him, I look for Sears to shut down a White Sox offense that ranks 26th in ISO and 22nd in SLG against the last 12 left-handed starting pitchers they have faced.
Be sure to check out our full Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics predictions
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