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While NFL and college football takes center-stage this week, particularly with the Packers vs Eagles game taking place tonight in Brazil, don’t forget about the loaded MLB slate on Friday night with all 30 teams in action! Let’s dive into my best MLB player prop bets for Friday, September 6. Also don’t forget that you can find out our experts’ MLB picks for today’s matchups.
Colorado Rockies Team Total Over 2.5 runs (-140)
Line available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Yes, you read that correctly. I’m backing the woeful Colorado Rockies to score 3 runs tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers — specifically Frankie Montas. Montas has been a fade candidate of mine ever since he made his way to Milwaukee from Cincinnati. At first glance, his 3.82 ERA with the Reds doesn’t look so bad, but on the year, he has a 4.69 xERA – ranking in the 22nd percentile amongst pitchers. His high walk and low strikeout rate was on full display last start, where he allowed 7 hits, 4 earned runs, 3 walks and just 4 strikeouts.
I’m doing a bit of line reading on this game, and Montas’ earned-run prop is sitting at 1.5 at -140 and up to -150 on other books. I would rather pivot to the team total of 2.5 with the better price and guarantee of batting all 9 innings. The Rockies crossed 3 runs across the board yesterday against Reynaldo López – a much better arm than Montas.
FanDuel is ahead of the game with this prop. They have the over of 2.5 runs priced at -165 — a price I would not play. If Bet365 is unavailable in your state, DraftKings is just behind at -135.
Lock in today’s MLB parlay picks at +1099 odds
Erick Fedde (STL) Over 16.5 outs (-108)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Erick Fedde has been a quality arm for the St. Louis Cardinals since he was acquired from the Chicago White Sox at the deadline. Funny enough, even after being off the White Sox roster for over a month, Fedde still leads the team in wins. We’re backing Fedde on his Outs prop of 16.5 against the Seattle Mariners tonight. The Mariners are slowly heating up against RHP, but I’ll side with Fedde going deep into this game with his performances as of late. His 3.90 xERA ranks in the 55th percentile, and BallPark Pal has the Mariners at just 3.34 runs tonight – while the books are offering Fedde’s earned runs prop at just 1.5.
