Kevin Davies
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Welcome back, NFL! The 2024-2025 season kicks off tonight with the Baltimore battling Kansas City in Arrowhead, and we have our Ravens vs Chiefs prediction for that…but first, there is a busy MLB slate with plenty of day games to tune into! In fact, I have found my 2 best MLB player prop bets in the early games, and both props are at plus odds! Let’s dive in, while you can also see our MLB picks for today’s games.
Pablo Lopez (MIN) Under 6.5 strikeouts (+124)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
I was incredibly surprised to see Pablo Lopez’s strikeout prop set at 6.5, but I was even more shocked to see the under at such a good price. This season has been one to forget for Lopez who currently owns a 4.05 ERA which is his highest mark since 2019. He had a rough start to the year and never seemed to bounce back — until now. Lopez has thrown back-to-back-to-back shutouts against the Rangers, Cardinals, and Blue Jays in his last 3 starts. Before those 3 starts, Lopez had thrown 1 shutout in his first 24 outings.
It’s clear that he’s figured something out since he’s limited hitters to a .222 batting average in his 3 most recent starts, but this prop isn’t about hits or runs, it’s about strikeouts. That’s something Lopez also hasn’t been great at this season since his strikeout rate (25%) is nearly 4% lower than last season and it’s even lower since the all-star break (21%). And here’s the icing on the cake: Lopez has surpassed this number in just 1 of his last 5 starts. I’m expecting 5 punchouts for him on Thursday afternoon.
Check out our 3-star Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays best bet
Merrill Kelly (ARI) Over 5.5 hits allowed (+120)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Another plus-odds player prop! But this time I’m taking the over. Merrill Kelly has not been the same pitcher since returning from the injured list. The right-hander has allowed 28 hits, 18 runs, 6 home runs and 8 walks in just 4 starts against the Phillies, Rays, Red Sox and Dodgers. He’s allowing a .318 batting average with a .338 xBA and a stunning 48% hard-hit rate since rejoining the rotation. In summary, Kelly has been throwing batting practice lately. If that’s not enough, Kelly has been terrible pitching in San Francisco in his career. He owns a 1-5 record with a 5.83 ERA and has allowed a ridiculous .310 batting average and .938 OPS at Oracle Park in his 6 seasons. There’s no reason to have any faith in Kelly at the moment — especially if he is starting in a park that’s struggled in during his career.
Read our full Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants prediction
