Kevin Davies
Show Bio
Yesterday was a very slow day in baseball. There were only 4 games happening around the country, but thankfully we’re back to a normal-sized slate today with plenty of important series like the Orioles vs Yankees, Mets vs Braves and Mariners vs Astros. I’ve found my 2 best MLB player prop bets that you should look to lock in before the games start tonight! You can also find out our MLB picks for today on the side and total.
Bowden Francis (TOR) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-150)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
Bowden Francis went from back-end starter to the new ace of the Blue Jays. Francis made the Opening Day roster but struggled out of the gate as he posted an 8.59 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP in his first 5 appearances. He was sent back to Triple-A, and when he returned, he was a completely different pitcher. Francis posted a 1.05 ERA and 0.41 WHIP in 6 outings in August and has followed it up with a 2.70 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in 3 starts this month. He took 2 no-hit bids into the 9th inning before losing both of them due to a solo home run. So since August 1, Francis has limited hitters to a .120 batting average, .179 xBA, 27% strikeout rate, and a 35% hard-hit rate. In summary, he’s been dominant. He’s also allowed more than 2 earned runs just once in his 8 starts since the beginning of August. That one time came against the Phillies, who have one of the best lineups in baseball, and they still only tagged Francis for 3 earned runs. Tonight, Francis will face a Red Sox lineup that ranks 30th in batting average, 27th in on-base percentage and 29th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. I’m expecting Francis to carve up Boston’s young lineup.
See our MLB parlay picks for tonight at +1254 odds
Logan Webb (SF) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing.
It’s been a slightly disappointing season for Logan Webb. The Giants ace signed an extension to remain in San Francisco for the next few seasons and hasn’t lived up to expectations lately. Maybe it’s because he set expectations so high because of his phenomenal last few years or because he’s been really bad in September. Webb is 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 4 starts this month and has allowed a .330 batting average with a .288 xBA in that span. He’s also allowed at least 3 earned runs in his last 5 consecutive starts and it won’t get any easier tonight since he has to face the red-hot Snakes lineup. Arizona ranks 5th in batting average, 4th in on-base percentage, 2nd in slugging percentage and 2nd in OPS against right-handed pitching in September. Plus, the Snakes’ lineup has great numbers against Webb. Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll, Joc Pederson, Josh Bell, Eugenio Suarez and Jake McCarthy are a combined 25-for-77 (.324) against Webb in their careers. I’ll happily back Arizona to stay hot at the plate against a struggling Webb at a fantastic price.
