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Labor Day Baseball! We have an 11-game slate to attack starting at 2:10 E.T and I have three bets to take us through the night. Let’s dive into my best MLB player prop bets for Monday, September 2. Also don’t forget that you can find out our experts’ MLB picks for today’s matchups.
Gavin Williams (CLE) Over 1.5 walks (-131)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Fading pitchers facing the same team in a short period of time is always a target of mine. Gavin Williams pitched 5.0 innings of three-hit baseball against the Kansas City Royals last Tuesday — one of his better outings of the year. But Williams issued 2 walks for the eighth time in 11 starts this season. That’s the approach we’re taking on Monday.
As of publication, I found a price we can’t pass up on Caesars Sportsbook. They’re offering bettors the over on Williams walks at -131. The next best price you’ll find is on BetMGM at -145, while DraftKings is down to -155. Those are 2 prices I’d pass on. That’s why shopping around and divvying up your bankroll in multiple books is vital.
As stated, Williams has walked at least 2 batters in eight of 11 starts and is ranked in the 33rd percentile in BB%. The last five right-handed starters to face off against the Royals have all walked at least 2. Here’s to hoping the familiarity against Williams pays off.
Check out our Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals prediction
Astros Over 3.5 Runs First 7 Innings (-135)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is a market I’m only seeing on DraftKings, and it’s an ideal pivot to the Astros team total of 4.5 runs priced at -170 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Astros will be matched against RHP rookie Julian Aguiar, who is making his fourth start in his career — including his second in as many as four days. He allowed 10 hits and 6 runs in his first start at home and will likely not go deep into today’s game after throwing 78 pitches. Nonetheless, the Astros are crushing RHP. They’re hitting a league-best .279 the last 2 weeks and have plenty of firepower at the top of the order, but it’s the other batters who have shown up as of late. During a 2-week span against RHP, Ben Gamel, Yainer Diaz, Victor Caratini and Mauricio Dubon are hitting over .300.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) Under 4.5 hits allowed (+110)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Let’s attack some plus money on this Monday slate. The Minnesota Twins are in a heated division race and will battle against the now-tanking Tampa Bay Rays. Simeon Woods Richardson will take the bump for the Twins and has had an outstanding rookie season after pitching in 1 game each in 2022 and 2023. Tonight I’m backing the 23-year-old RHP against a Rays team, hitting .217 against RHP the last 2 weeks.
Richardson has consistently been able to give the Twins quality innings. He’s gone at least 5.0 innings pitched in 4 straight starts while staying under his 4.5 hits allowed prop in all 4 of those games. That includes loaded offenses in the Braves, Guardians, Rangers and Padres — teams with much more offense than the Rays.
Richardson has run into a problem with his command, as any other rookie does. He has walked at least 2 batters in 5 of his 7 starts since the all-star break, which in turn raises his pitch count. Luckily for us, walks will do us no harm.
