Kevin Davies
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Thursdays are a busy day in the sports world with plenty of baseball happening in the afternoon and evening along with Thursday Night Football. Before we get to New York vs New England (and you can find out our Patriots vs Jets best bets), I found my 2 best MLB player prop bets that you should consider locking in before they start… (spoiler – the Brandon Pfaadt prop is on a 6-0 run!). Let’s break them down, while you can also see our MLB picks on the side and total.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Welcome back to the rotation, Taijuan Walker! The veteran was booted from the rotation 2 weeks ago after a disastrous start against the Astros in which he was tagged for 13 hits, 6 runs, and 1 home run. But let’s be honest — that was the last straw after an entire season of bad starts. The veteran had a 6.50 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP when he was removed from the starting rotation and his advanced metrics indicated that his poor performances weren’t a fluke. Walker was moved to the bullpen to work on his mechanics and will return to the rotation after just 3 relief appearances. He surrendered 5 runs, 10 hits, 2 home runs and 2 walks in those 8 innings out of the bullpen.
His last relief outing was 5 days ago against the offense he will face tonight — the New York Mets. Walker surprised everyone by throwing 3 scoreless innings and giving up just 3 hits. However, it wasn’t as dominant as you might think. He still allowed a .273 batting average, a .322 xBA and a 45% hard-hit rate in those 3 innings. Looking back to his previous starts, he’s allowed 3 earned runs or more in his last 6 starts and in 9 of his last 10 starts. This is a great price for how bad Walker has been this season.
Read our full Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets prediction
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) over 4.5 hits allowed (-165)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
I bet against Brandon Pfaadt his last time out and it paid out fast. He was rocked for 8 runs, 7 hits, and 1 home run in just 1.2 innings of work against the Brewers. And guess which team he’s facing tonight! That’s right, the Diamondbacks are in Milwaukee to face the Brewers once again. That’s terrible news for Pfaadt, who has been shelled by the Brewers in his young career. In 28 plate appearances against Pfaadt, the Milwaukee lineup owns a .478 batting average with a .492 xSLG to go with a 10.7% walk rate. That’s pure dominance by a lineup that has all 9 hitters seeing Pfaadt well. Plus, it’s not as if his last start was an outlier. Pfaadt has allowed 5 or more hits in 6 consecutive starts and in 8 of his last 9 starts. Since the calendar flipped to August, Pfaadt has allowed a .345 batting average with a .294 xBA. I’m confident the Brewers can accomplish this feat tonight if they did it in just 1.2 innings last time.
Read our full Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction
