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Back to the MLB grind. We cashed in our plus-money MLB player prop bet yesterday with Framber Valdez getting the win, and that means we’re now on a 16-5 run with our MLB prop bets! To say that we’re red-hot right now is an understatement, and I’m back with my 2 favorite plays for today’s 11-game slate, with first pitch at 2:10 pm ET. Texas Rangers LHP Jordan Montgomery headlines our top MLB player prop bet of the day, but be sure to also check out our MLB predictions for every matchup on the docket.
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Jordan Montgomery (TEX) over 15.5 outs (+120)
Available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
What do the sportsbook know that we don’t? Jordan Montgomery has been an inning eater for the Rangers since he was acquired at the deadline. He’s gone over this mark in 7 of 8 starts with the Rangers, including a dominant outing in his last game against the Toronto Blue Jays. He’ll battle against the Boston Red Sox tonight, who haven’t been solid against LHP yet.
This line doesn’t reflect Montgomery’s other props. His earned runs are set at 2.5 with vig on the under, and his hits allowed are set at just 4.5. The Rangers bullpen is hurting after a dreadful series in Cleveland, where two starters failed to pitch into the 5th inning. Montgomery will be needed massively as the Rangers find themselves 1.5 games behind the Astros for the lead in the AL West and are holding onto a .5-game lead in the Wild Card standings.
As long as we’re not eating a ton of juice on this prop, it’s a no-brainer for me. FanDuel has Montgomery at 15.5. outs but at -115, while DraftKings is set at +105. Head to BetMGM for a great price.
Don’t miss today’s +1116 Mega Parlay
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Adam Wainwright (STL) Under 3.5 strikeouts (-136)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Adam Wainwright has a chance to make history tonight. He’s looking to become the 5th active pitcher to achieve 200 wins. Cool — I’m still fading him. Wainwright will be determined to go 5 innings tonight, and if the Cardinals have a lead, I don’t expect them to push him. His outs line is set at 15.5 with vig on the under. Even though he’s gone over 15.5 outs in 3 of his last 5 starts, he’s stayed under 4 strikeouts in 4 of those games. On the season, he’s stayed under this mark in 8 of the last 10 starts and 16 of 20 this season.
The Brewers have a matchup tonight that I feel great about. The top of the lineup is challenging to strike out, with all four projected hitters having a K rate against RHP below 23%. We’ll be in for a sweat if Wainwright gets to the bottom lineup three times, but I expect him to be hit around hard tonight, where it’ll be difficult for the Cardinals to leave him in the game.
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