Kevin Davies
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It’s a loaded slate of games tonight in the MLB and instead of picking who will win or predicting how many runs will be scored, I’ve taken a deep dive into the player prop market in search of value. I’ve found my 2 MLB player prop best bets, both at plus-money odds, that you should consider locking in before tonight’s games start. Let’s dive in, while you can also see our MLB picks on the side and total for today’s action.
Blake Snell (SF) over 7.5 strikeouts (+116)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The once-prolific Orioles offense has gone cold. Baltimore was ripping the cover off of the ball in the first half of the season and their deep lineup made it extremely difficult for pitchers to work around the heart of the order. However, that seems like an eternity ago because the O’s lineup looks terrible right now. Since August 15, the Orioles rank 29th in batting average, 24th in slugging percentage and 25th in OPS. It’s a bad time to go ice cold at the plate since the postseason begins in just two weeks.
And facing a lefty hasn’t broken them out of their rut since they rank 26th in batting average against left-handed pitchers in that month-long span. That’s going to stack the odds against them tonight since they have to face Blake Snell, the reigning Cy Young. Snell has dominated the Baltimore lineup in his career as he’s held the O’s to a .200 batting average with a 32.9% strikeout rate in 60 at-bats. Plus, Snell has passed this mark in 7 of his last 9 starts. I like the southpaw’s chances of continuing Baltimore’s slump at the plate — especially at plus-money odds.
Cole Ragans (KC) to record the win (+105)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
This divisional series has a lot of postseason implications on the line. The Royals occupy a Wild Card spot by a few games and need to keep winning to avoid slipping out. One team that would benefit from Kansas City’s downfall would be the Tigers, who are just 1.5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card spot. That makes this game incredibly important for both teams, and when the moment is big, side with Cole Ragans. The lefty has been phenomenal this season with a 3.32 ERA paired with a 3.28 xERA in 30 outings. He’s had several tough matchups in his last few games and has stepped up when the Royals needed him most, considering he’s surrendered just 2 runs and 7 hits in 12 innings against the Yankees and Twins in September.
Ragans gets a slightly easier matchup against the Tigers tonight, which includes a lineup that he has dominated this season. In 2 starts against Detroit in 2024, Ragans has allowed just 2 runs and 3 hits while striking out 18 in just 11.2 innings. And in a bigger sample size, Ragans has held the Detroit hitters to just a .150 batting average with a 29.2% strikeout rate in 48 career plate appearances against him. If the Royals lineup can give him 1 or 2 runs of support, the lefty should be able to minimize the Tigers.
