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Friday’s MLB slate presents bettors with a 15-game slate loaded with offenses facing off against medicore pitchers. Speaking of which, let’s turn our attention to Cleveland. Guardians RHP Lucas Giolito headlines our top MLB player prop bet of the day, but be sure to also check out our MLB predictions for every matchup on the docket.
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Lucas Giolito (CLE) over 2.5 earned runs (-125)
Available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
It’s never a great sign if a pitcher is on his third team in one year. Unless you’re fading him, that’s what we’ll do today with Lucas Giolito. Giolito will make his 3rd start with the Guardians, with the first 2 being disastrous. He’s allowed a combined 13 runs in 10 innings while giving up 6 home runs. It has the potential to be a home run derby tonight against the Texas Rangers, who have hit the 4th most home runs against RHP this season.
The Rangers lineup is loaded from top to bottom. It features one of the best one-two punches in all of baseball with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. It’s followed by Nathaniel Lowe, who hits RHP at a nearly .300 clip. Giolito’s earned run prop sticks out the most for several reasons. His hits allowed prop is set at 4.5 with heavy vig on the over, while his walks are set at 1.5 with vig on the over. His command wasn’t even in question earlier in the season, but it’s raised eyebrows with his play as of late. He’s issued at least 2 walks in 8 of his last 10 starts. With nothing to lose, I expect Gioltio to eye for 6 innings tonight and eventually give up at least 3 earned runs.
Don’t miss today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets
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Tarik Skubal (DET) Over 16.5 outs (-125)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Tarik Skubal is fresh off the best start of his injury plagued season with a 5-inning shutout against the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox are about as underwhelming as it gets, but he’ll face off against another woeful squad in the Los Angeles Angels.
The Angels are ready to call it quits on their 2023 campaign. They made the push at the trade deadline and ultimately failed. Perfect time to back Skubal as the Angels rank in the bottom 10 in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging against LHP in the last 30 days.
Since being lifted of a pitch count, Skubal has surpassed this line in 4 of his last 5 starts and has kept his walks down. His BB% ranks in top 9% of the league while his xERA% ranks in the top 1%. Look for Skubal to dominate once again and get to around 92-97 pitches tonight.
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