Kevin Davies
Show Bio
One month from now, we will be watching postseason baseball. It’s the final stretch of the regular season and the Wild Card races couldn’t be closer, with plenty of teams still in contention. I dove into the prop market for tonight’s games and have found my 2 best MLB player prop bets to lock in. Let’s break them down, while you can also see our MLB picks for tonight’s matchups.
Taj Bradley (TB) over 4.5 hits allowed (-165)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
If you’re looking for a player prop trend that’s on a 6-0 run, you’ve come to the right place. Taj Bradley has been horrendous in the second half of the season as he posted a 10.41 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 5 starts in August and then surrendered 4 runs, 6 hits and 2 home runs in his first start in September. Dating back to the beginning of August, Bradley has allowed a .339 batting average, a .295 xBA, a 6% home run rate and a 52% hard-hit rate. Bradley has also given up at least 1 homer in 6 of his last 7 starts, which has been a big reason for his recent struggles.
The right-hander will take on the Phillies’ lineup for the first time in his career and limiting this Philly offense won’t be easy. Philadelphia ranks in the top 5 in almost every offensive category against right-handed pitching in September, which gives me confidence that they can tag Bradley for a few hits, runs, and hopefully even homers. In summary, this line is way too low. Even the A’s were able to pass this line a few weeks ago, so I’m confident that the Phillies can do it too.
Rhett Lowder (CIN) under 5.5 hits allowed (-150)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
It felt like just last year that Rhett Lowder was pitching for Wake Forest in the College World Series. Oh wait, it was. Lowder has whizzed through the Minor Leagues and has appeared in Single-A, Double-A and Triple-A this season. With that said, most of his time was spent in Double-A considering he made just 1 start in Triple-A before being promoted to the show. His inexperience hasn’t been a problem at the MLB level yet since he’s allowed only 1 run and 6 hits in 10.1 innings.
However, there is one slight problem. Lowder has walked 8 batters in ratio to his 9 strikeouts. Basically, Lowder goes for the swing-and-miss. He doesn’t like to pitch to contact and won’t give in even when he’s down in the count. That has shot up his walk rate to an absurd 18.2%. But we’re not interested in walks — we’re discussing hits. In his professional career, Lowder has allowed 6 or more hits in just 6 of his 24 starts. The rookie surrendered 6 or more hits just 6 times in the Minors in 22 starts and has yet to allow 6 hits or more in his 2 MLB starts. Hopefully he continues to attempt to paint the corners and rack up the walks and strikeouts to avoid giving up hits.
