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Following just a 4-game MLB slate yesterday, we’re back. We have a loaded 16-game slate starting with the first leg of a doubleheader between the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs at 1:10 E.T. We’ll turn our attention to Yordan Alvarez facing off against Carlos Rodon in a marquee matchup.
He headlines our top MLB player prop bet for Friday Night, but be sure to also check out our MLB predictions for every matchup on the docket.
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Yordan Alvarez (HOU) Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-120)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing
I’m going against my judgment here taking a hitter at home, but Yordan Alvarez is an exception. The lefty has reverse splits and is hitting .322 against LHP this season and an even more impressive .350 in the last 30 days. During that span, he has led the league in singles and tied for second in RBIs. It helps when you have a healthy Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker hitting in front of you to bat in. Tucker also has reverse splits, and he is the only hitter in the top 4 in the order to not have a hit against New York Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon who the Astros will see tonight.
Rodon isn’t going to get overworked tonight. The Yankees have called it quits on their 2023 campaign which includes limiting Rodon to around 80 pitches. He exited last start in the 5th at 84 pitches and surrounded 4 hits and 2 runs. I do expect Alvarez to face off against Rodon potentially 3 times, though, and build off his career 3-for-9 off him — which includes a home run and 2 singles.
We may not get the luxury of seeing Alvarez bat in the 9th as the Astros are favorites with Justin Verlander on the mound, but he is still over this line in 55% of his home games. Rodon hasn’t seen much action on the road this season with just 14.0 innings pitched, but his ERA skyrockets to 7.71. Expect Alvarez to continue to find the basepaths and gear up for postseason play.
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Tyler Glasnow (TB) Under 4.5 hits allowed (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Sonny Gray dominating the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday left me excited to fade them today against Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow was magnificent in this last start. He allowed just 1 hit against the New York Yankees which included 15 of his outs coming via a groundball or flyout. If he has his strikeout stuff tonight, we’re going to be in for a fun one.
The Guardians have joined the likes of the Yankees and Mets as the most disappointing teams in baseball. They find themselves 5 games behind the Twins in the AL Central and need to put it in drive right now to make a run. That doesn’t stop me from fading them though. In August, they hit at the 9th worst average against RHP at home. Their slugging rate is worse, ranking in the bottom 5 during that span. Other than Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, who are both hitting over .275 against RHP this season, this lineup just isn’t something elite pitchers aren’t worried about. The good news is that both of those hitters are hitless in 9 at-bats against Glasnow.
I do wish we were getting Glasnow at home, but he is still under in more than half of his starts this season. We’ll cross our fingers that Glasnow shows off his 96th percentile K rate, which will eat up his pitch count.
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