Kevin Davies
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It’s a busy day in baseball, with plenty of day games happening around the country. Three games start before 1 PM, along with lots of mid-afternoon games, so there are multiple opportunities to win. I’ve stuck with the later games and found two player prop best bets for Thursday.
Hunter Greene (CIN) to record a win (-115)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Hunter Greene is in the midst of the best stretch of his career. In his last five starts, Greene has allowed 1 run, 10 hits, and 40 strikeouts in 33 innings. He’s limited hitters to a stunning 0.094 batting average, a .139 xBA and just a 29% hard-hit rate, but it gets even better. The All-Star break gave Greene nearly two weeks off, marking the longest rest he had all season. That rest was very impactful for Greene since he’s been lights out since the break. Greene has thrown back-to-back-to-back shutouts against the Giants, Rays, and Braves. Plus, he’s given up just 5 hits and 5 walks in those three starts. With the way he’s pitching, I’m not sure any offense could knock him around – especially not the Miami lineup. The Marlins have the 8th highest strikeout rate in the last 14 days and have an extremely young offense that will be overpowered by Greene. I’m confident that the Reds lineup will give Greene the run support he needs, which might only be 1 or 2 runs. I’m backing Greene to get his fourth win in five starts.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-140)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
It’s been a rough season for Kevin Gausman. The Toronto ace went into the break with a 7-8 record and a 4.50 ERA and hasn’t been much better in the second half of the year. He’s allowed 12 runs, 17 hits, 3 home runs, and 9 walks in his three starts since the All-Star break. Gausman surrendered at least 3 earned runs in all three of those outings. Looking further back, Gausman has allowed 3 earned runs or more in seven of his last nine starts. His opponent tonight will be a team that has already tagged Gausman for at least 3 earned runs this season too. In early June, the Orioles went north of the border and shelled Gausman for 6 earned runs, 6 hits and 3 home runs. He has a terrible track record against the Orioles lineup in his career, and with the way the O’s are swinging the bats lately, I’m expecting another poor performance from Gausman.
