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After a 2-1 card yesterday, with our only loss being Juan Soto over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs, our attention turns back to him as our top MLB player prop bet of the day. The Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres get the slate started early with a 4:10 pm ET 1st pitch and you can check out our MLB predictions for that and all 12 games on Monday. But for now, let’s dive into my 3 best MLB prop bets of the day.
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Juan Soto (SD) over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-130)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Let’s start with how this lost last night. Juan Soto hit 2 balls with an exit velocity of over 100 MPH and an xBA of over .400 on both outs. That’s betting sometimes though. We’re trusting the process and going right to him because of the matchup against RHP Tony Gonsolin.
After an insane 2022 season where Gonsolin had a record of 16-1 backed behind the best offense in baseball, this season has been a reality check. Gonsolin has a 4.88 xERA and a career-low K%. He started the season on the IL and returned on a pitch count but has been given the full reins. Two starts ago, he threw 109 pitches in just five innings. Our hope here is that Gonsolin sees Soto 3 times and cashes this prop for the 8th time in 10 games.
Soto against a RHP has been magical for bettors. He’s hitting .287 with 19 home runs and 60 RBIs, which are both top 15 in baseball. He has familiar history against Gonsolin with 8 at-bats resulting in 2 hits and 2 RBIs. After an unlucky day yesterday, trust Juan Soto to deliver for us.
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Pablo Lopez (MIN) under 5.5 hits allowed (-125)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
DraftKings is beating BetMGM by 10 cents and Caesars by 12 so make sure to shop around on this bet!
Pablo Lopez was my dark horse pick to win the AL CY Young before the season started. After an electric start to the season where he allowed 8 hits combined in his first 3 starts, Lopez has returned to earth. He’s allowing an average of 5 hits per start but has been slightly better on the road this season. He’ll be in Detroit tonight as the Twins look to extend their 4-game winning streak.
Lopez faced off against the Tigers back in late June and it was interesting to say the least. Lopez punched out 10 Tigers but allowed 7 hits in 6 innings pitched. Since the calendar turned to July though, the Tigers rank in the bottom 10 in batting average and slugging against RHP. They just aren’t a lethal offense and are always a good target to attack.
Lopez has cashed this prop in 12 of 22 games this season and 7 of 12 on the road. We’ve had success with these hits allowed props as of late. Corbin Burnes cashed for us last week with a dominant performance and Bobby Miller cashed in the 2nd inning back at the end of July. Let’s get Lopez’s A-game!
Check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets — we’re on an 11-3 run!
Gerrit Cole (NYY) under 5.5 hits allowed (-135)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Both Gerrit Cole and Pablo Lopez are more than capable of going deep into their respective games and putting these player props in jeopardy, but we’ll ride.
Cole has been magnificent this season and is the betting favorite to win his first CY Young award for good reason. He’s 2nd in ERA behind Blake Snell and top 5 in WHIP. In July and August, he’s allowing an opponent batting average of under .180 and has stayed under this prop in his last 5 games. That includes battles against the Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs — all much better offenses than his opponent tonight in the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox rank in the bottom 10 in batting average and slugging against RHP this season and are in the midst of a disaster of a 2023 season. This has the makings of being an elite showdown with Dylan Cease on the bump for Chicago. Expect Cole to answer the call and cash this player prop bet for the 17th time in 24 starts this season.
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