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After a loaded MLB weekend, Monday presents bettors with a 9-game slate in Major League Baseball. Let’s dive into our best MLB player prop bets for Monday, August 5, but don’t forget you can also find out our experts’ MLB picks for today’s matchups. I’m 39-18 on my MLB player prop picks this season, so let’s add to that tally here!
Houston Astros Over 3.5 runs (-135)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I have a checklist to decide whether or not I’m backing a certain play regarding MLB prop bets, and the Houston Astros team total runs of 3.5 at -135 ultimately checks all those boxes. Let’s dive into my thinking.
Sharper books like FanDuel and DraftKings have this same line set at -150 and -158. Getting -135 on this line is already great value. To dive into the matchup, the Astros will be opposed by LHP Andrew Heaney, their third time facing the southpaw this season alone. In the first 2 matchups, Heaney allowed 2 earned runs each, but 6 walks combined. He escaped trouble in those two games, but I don’t see him getting lucky this time. Heaney will have to pitch deep into this game due to the Texas Rangers getting fewer than 12 innings combined from their starters in their last series against the Boston Red Sox. If the Rangers push Heaney, especially a third time around to the core of the Astros who have his number, we could be looking at an early cash.
Start the new week right by checking out our MLB parlay picks for today at +861 odds
Minnesota Twins Over 3.5 runs (-140)
Line available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
We’re attacking another line that has great value, again checking all the boxes for myself. The Twins will get all 9 innings to register at least 4 runs on the Chicago Cubs led by RHP Kyle Hendricks and his 5.06 xERA. Hendricks’ consecutive seasons of a strikeout rate of less than 16% have made it extremely difficult for him to get hitters out, which has ultimately led to his 2 worst seasons in the big leagues. The Twins are no strangers to having success against RHP. Since the all-star break, they have ranked in the top 10 in OBP and wRC+. Yesterday, the Twins got to RHP Chris Flexen early. They registered 8 runs alone in the first two innings. Two days prior, they hit RHP Davis Martin for 4 earned runs in 3.2 innings.
