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Hey, don’t ignore the MLB with college football returning! We have a 16-game slate starting at 12:40 pm ET with the first game of a doubleheader. Let’s dive into my best MLB player prop bets for Friday, August 30.
Also don’t forget that you can find out our experts’ MLB picks for today’s matchups.
Ranger Suarez (PHI) Under 5.5 hits allowed (-125)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The season’s biggest series for both the Phillies and Braves kicked off last night and was worth watching. The Phillies came back from 4-0 down thanks to home runs by Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos, who accounted for all 5 of the Phillies’ runs. Tonight, the Phillies hand the ball to Ranger Suarez — who looked magnificent in his return last start after a month-long hiatus on the IL.
The sportsbooks are giving bettors a 15.5 outs line for Suarez, which I agree is priced correctly. The Phillies purposely didn’t use any of their elite bullpen arms in a 10-0 loss to the Astros so they could be ready to go this series. They currently hold a 6-game lead in the NL East, and with how pivotal this game is I don’t see them stretching out Suarez after tossing just 72 pitches in his first game back and zero rehab starts. But Suarez didn’t miss a beat in those 5.0 innings, as he allowed just 4 hits total and 1 through the first 4 innings.
Seeing Suarez deal last Saturday night gives me the confidence to back him with the wind blowing in at Citizens Bank Park. Look for him to build off that start and return to his Cy Young-like self that he put on display in the first month of the season with a 0.75 ERA in 5 starts.
Check out our Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction
Los Angeles Dodgers Over 4.5 runs scored (+100)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
After scoring 6 runs last night with an uncanny lineup that featured Tommy Edman in the 4 hole and Miguel Rojas in the 5 spot, the Dodgers are expecting to return Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Max Muncy to the lineup on Friday night on the road against Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
After searching through Gallen’s props and trying to find a way to fade the right-hander, the Dodgers’ team total of 4.5 is the best bet. Gallen’s earned run prop at 2.5 is too juiced. His hits allowed prop of 5.5 is a smart bet at first glance, but Gallen has had trouble locating after issuing 4 walks at the last start and at least 2 in 4 straight appearances. With the Diamondbacks 4 games back in the division, it doesn’t get much more important than this. Gallen may only see the top of the lineup 2 to 3 times with a 16.5 outs line.
The projected lineup for the Dodgers has had its fair share of battles against Gallen since he entered the NL West from the Miami Marlins. Betts, Freeman, Muncy and Lux all have at least 20 at-bats against Gallen, while Will Smith has 19. Look for the familiarity against Gallen to pay dividends tonight.
