Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
The Trade Deadline is under our belt and although some rosters look different and Vegas has adjusted to the moves, there is still a juicy MLB slate on tonight and I’ve found multiple spots with plenty of value to bet on. Here is are my best player prop bets for the evening of Thursday, August 3.
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Kevin Gausman (TOR) over 6.5 strikeouts (-150)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing; recommended 1.5u wager.
Laying juice like this on a player prop is scary but this line might simply close at 7.5 and getting it early at this number is worth the cost. For starters, the Blue Jays bullpen desperately needs a length outing from their ace. Closer Jordan Romano is on the injured list. Jay Jackson is on the bereavement list. New acquisition Jordan Hicks will be unavailable since he has pitched on back to back nights. That is why Gausman’s outs recorded line is set at 18.5, expecting him to go at least 6.0 innings.
On the season, Gausman has notched seven-plus strikeouts in 15 of his 21 starts, 10 of 11 when on at least five days of rest, 8 of 10 when at home, and 13 of 16 when going at least six innings. All of those hit rates are higher than the 60% implied probability we are buying on this prop and Thursday’s Orioles are a solid matchup as well. Since the All-Star break, Baltimore’s offense ranks #8 in road strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in the first six innings (27.0%). In that span, they rank #18 in run value/100 against right-handed sliders. Gausman’s two elite whiff weapons are a slider and a splitter. Although Baltimore has had some success against splitters, the sample size is small recently and they are yet to face someone like Gausman, who has one of the best splitters in MLB. Gausman should find his way to the over in this home start on five days rest.
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Gleyber Torres (NYY) over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing; recommended 1u wager.
Cristian Javier, who is starting for the Astros at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, has had a rocky season with weird splits. Although he has surrendered gaudy numbers against left-handed hitters, his contact stats are even worse against right-handed hitters, with his line-drive rate, flyball rate, and hard-hit rate allowed all rising. On the season, he ranks in the bottom quartile of pitchers in barrel rate and xSLG allowed. Over the last one month, he has allowed a 43.4% hard-hit rate overall and is finding very little success with his two-piece combo of four-seam fastballs and sliders.
The Yankees offense, on the other hand, has been atrocious all season long but Gleyber Torres has been a rare bright spot, especially in the Bronx. Since July 1, Torres has posted a 111 wRC+, .217 ISO, and 37.2% hard-hit rate at home against right-handed pitchers. In that span, he has posted a .636 xSLG against right-handed four-seamers and .471 xSLG against right-handed sliders. Combine Javier’s below-average walk rate and Torres’ below-average walk rate and we have ourselves the best matchup in this Yankee lineup for some hard-hit contact and great value at plus-money.
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