Kevin Davies
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We’re coming upon a great time of year. Football season is right around the corner and postseason baseball is just a few weeks away. It’s a very exciting time in sports, and to add to our joy, I’ve picked out my 2 best MLB player prop bets today, including one at plus-money odds! Let’s dive in, while you can also find out our MLB picks for Thursday, August 29.
Brady Singer (KC) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Brady Singer has had a phenomenal season thus far, but negative regression is inevitable. At the all-star break, Singer’s xERA was nearly 2 runs higher than his ERA. That indicates he’s been extremely lucky and he’s due for a few poor starts. Statistics don’t lie because Singer appears to be in the midst of his negative regression. He’s allowed 4 earned runs and 8 hits or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. During those 4 outings, Singer allowed a .358 batting average with a .276 xBA and a 43% hard-hit rate. He’s starting to come back to reality at a rapid rate, and it should only get worse against an Astros team that just scored 10 runs yesterday in Philadelphia. Between his elevated ERA on the road and struggles in the last month or so, I’m expecting the Astros to tag him early for at least 3 runs.
Find out today’s MLB parlay picks at HUGE +1052 odds
Bobby Miller (LAD) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I had to rub my eyes and check again to make sure this bet was actually at plus-money odds. Good news for us is that my eyes weren’t deceiving me — this bet is actually plus money. Bobby Miller impressed in his rookie season last year and began 2024 in the starting rotation, but injuries and struggles have caused him to make only 9 starts for the Dodgers this year. In those 9 outings, he’s allowed 3 earned runs or more in 6 of the starts. His command is much worse and his barrel rate has increased from 6% to 11.4%.
Miller has been back and forth between Triple-A and the Dodgers for the last few months but hasn’t been able to find success at any level yet. In his 2 starts since being called up at the beginning of August, Miller has allowed 7 runs, 15 hits and 4 home runs in 10.2 innings to the Rays and Cardinals. Miller allowed a ridiculous .333 batting average, .327 xBA and 60% hard-hit rate in those 2 outings. Baltimore will stack their lineup with 7 left-handed hitters tonight, so it feels like stealing by getting this price at plus odds.
Read our full Baltimore Orioles vs LA Dodgers prediction
