Javan Shouey
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For the last 14 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and I’m more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Friday’s MLB slate.
Joe Ryan (MIN) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
I love backing Joe Ryan at home, and I love fading the Giants against right-handed pitching. Today we get to do both in one play. Ryan is a very talented rookie that has supplied the Twins with much needed top-of-rotation production this season. The 26-year-old right-hander has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 20 starts. This includes 7 of the last 9 starts and 8 of 11 when pitching at home. At home this year Ryan has allowed a .186 OBA and 2.95 ERA in 61 IP.
Ryan ranks 60th percentile in xERA, 60th percentile in BB%, and 72nd percentile in xBA. He has a propensity to get barreled which isn’t ideal, but his hard-hit rate ranks 70th percentile. He gets out of jams often as his strikeout rate ranks 55th percentile, but his pop-up rate is more than double the league average at 14.3%. Ryan gets ahead in counts with first pitch strikes 65.1% of the time. When ahead in counts his 4-seam fastball is used 52.9% of the time with a .164 xBA and .292 xSLG. He also uses his slider 25.2% of the time in that scenario with an xBA of .211 and xSLG of .273. He draws a ton of weak contact and that should play well against a Giants team with the 5th-most soft contact against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. The Twins bullpen also should have everyone available as only Trevor Megill is at risk of pitching his 3rd game in 4 days, so Ryan shouldn’t be overly extended in terms of pitch count.
During those last 30 days against right-handed pitching, the Giants rank 23rd in wOBA, 24th in OPS, and 28th in AVG. The last right-handed starter they faced was a 5-inning scoreless outing from Mike Mayers. Each of the last 4 right-handed starters have held the Giants under 3 earned runs, as have 17 of the last 23 they have faced. Target Field is an overall pitcher-friendly park and with wind blowing in today, I love getting this price.
Chad Kuhl (COL) 5+ hits allowed/Mets ML (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings and BetMGM Sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Chad Kuhl began the season very well for his new team in Colorado, but that success has rapidly vanished. Kuhl now has a 5.16 ERA and a 13th percentile xERA to back it up. He ranks in the 15th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and K%. His walk rate is in the 22nd percentile with a 24th-percentile barrel rate. Kuhl uses his sinker the most with a 42.1% usage. The thing is his sinker is horrible with a .350 xBA and .592 xSLG against that pitch.
One of the main areas of concern with Kuhl is his inability to throw pitches for strikes consistently. He has a below-average first-pitch strike rate and below-average zone rate, and he gets himself into obvious fastball situations far too often. Kuhl struggles against batters from both sides of the plate. Against left-handed batters Kuhl has allowed a .271 OBA and .860 OPS, while allowing a .276 OBA and .790 OPS to right-handed batters. Something that stood out to me is Kuhl is not a traditional Rockies pitcher, as he actually pitches better in Coors Field. Tonight’s game will be played in Citi Field, and Kuhl has a 6.08 ERA and .288 OBA on the road this season. He has allowed 5 or more hits in 14 of his last 15 starts, including 6 straight, and 6 or more hits in 11 of those 15 starts.
The New York Mets have been crushing right-handed pitching in the last 30 days as they rank top 5 in wOBA, OPS and ISO. The Mets have recorded 5 or more hits off 6 of the last 7 and 19 of the last 24 right-handed starters they have seen. Chris Bassitt will take the mound for the home Mets, and he has been exceptional of late. In his last 4 starts spanning 26 IP, Bassitt has allowed only 2 earned runs and zero home runs. When at home this season he has a 2.55 ERA and .218 OBA. On the road against right-handers in the last month the Rockies rank 20th in wOBA, 21st in ISO and 19th in OPS. The Mets bullpen is the more rested and talented unit and I trust them to shut things down at the end of the game.
Tyler Anderson (LAD) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-150)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of post to Twitter. Playable at posted odds. If odds change, I am fine with Anderson to record a win at -115.
Tyler Anderson has been a steady hand for the Dodgers this season. In a year that has seen injuries to many of their starting pitchers, Anderson has stepped up. The 32-year-old left-hander has a 13-2 record with a 2.73 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He ranks 78th percentile in xERA, 68th percentile in xBA, 67th percentile in xSLG. Anderson limits walks ranking 88th percentile in BB% and doesn’t allow a lot of power ranking 83rd percentile in barrel rate, 95th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 97th percentile in average exit velocity.
Miami is arguably the league’s worst offense against left-handed pitching. In the last 60 days they rank 30th in wOBA, 28th in ISO, 30th in OPS, 30th in SLG and have a wRC+ of 50 against left-handers. Of the last 20 southpaws to face Miami, 18 of them have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs, with 12 allowing 1 or 0. This includes their last time facing a left-hander when Cole Irvin tossed 7 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts. Anderson allowed only 1 run across 5 hits in 7 IP in his last start which was against this Miami team.
Anderson has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 16/23 starts this season. While he has been much better at home, LoanDepot Park is a pitcher-friendly park, and this Miami lineup doesn’t scare me. He has allowed only 4 home runs in his last 99.2 IP and doesn’t get hit around often, allowing 6 or more hits in only 7 of 23 starts this year. Behind him is a fully rested bullpen as the Dodgers had the day off yesterday. Despite going 7 IP last start against Miami, his outs prop is heavily juiced to the under at 18.5. I believe this is due to the fresh bullpen behind him, and they shouldn’t need to overextend him in this game.
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