Javan Shouey
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For the last 14 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and I’m more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Thursday’s MLB slate.
Triston McKenzie (CLE) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (+105)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
Triston McKenzie is finally starting to string together performances in which he flashes his extreme potential. The 25-year-old right-hander is in good form having just shut down the offenses of the White Sox, Astros and Blue Jays in his last 3 starts. Those 3 starts spanned 21.2 IP with only 16 baserunners and 4 earned runs allowed. McKenzie has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 16 of his 23 starts this season, including 7 of his last 9.
The main worry with this bet is that McKenzie has an above average fly-ball rate, and Seattle has the league’s highest fly-ball rate in the last 30 days against right-handers. That being said, the Mariners’ HR/FB ratio sits just middle of the pack and they haven’t been hitting very well overall. In the last month Seattle ranks 23rd in hard contact%, wOBA, OPS, 22nd in SLG and 27th in AVG against right-handed pitching. Sixteen of the last 24 right-handed starters to face Seattle have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs. That includes 6 of the last 8 and back-to-back starts by Erick Fedde and Anibal Sanchez.
McKenzie ranks 71st percentile in BB%, 60th percentile in xBA and 67th percentile in K%. He is coming off a career-high 14 strikeouts against a White Sox lineup that is tough to strike out. McKenzie does a great job getting ahead in counts; in that situation he has xBA’s of .234, .122 and .228 on his 3 pitches. In 141.2 IP this season McKenzie has allowed only 101 hits and 35 walks. That has led to a 0.96 WHIP, which ranks 6th best in all of MLB. He has been exceptional during his 74.1 daytime IP. In those innings McKenzie has allowed a .161 OBA and 1.94 ERA. He has struggled allowing more home runs on the road this season and that is the concern today. However, in 27 PA against active Mariners bats, McKenzie has allowed only 5 hits. At the price being offered I love backing him in this spot.
Be sure to check out our Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners predictions
Kevin Gausman (TOR) 5+ strikeouts/Blue Jays ML (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
The Blue Jays are now 12-3 against the Red Sox this season. That includes all 4 times Kevin Gausman has taken the mound for the Toronto. Gausman has been worth every penny the Blue Jays in the offseason and I love this spot for him tonight.
Gausman ranks in the 80th percentile in strikeout rate this year with a 77th-percentile whiff rate. His 99th-percentile chase rate and 96th-percentile BB% are an impressive combination. In the most recent series between these two teams the Jays dominated 28-5 in the game pitched by Gausman. He has recorded 10, 10, 9 and 8 strikeouts this season against the Red Sox. In the last 30 days versus right-handed pitching, Boston ranks 19th in wOBA, 21st in ISO, 17th in OPS and 25th in BB%. Five of the last 6 right-handed starters have cleared this number against Boston, including Jose Berrios with 6 last night. On the road this season Gausman has 1.65 ERA and .222 OBA. He has allowed only 2 home runs and 11 walks in his 71 IP on the road.
Kutter Crawford will take the mound for Boston and is coming off a game against Baltimore in which he allowed 3 home runs and 11 hits on the way to 9 earned runs. He ranks 35th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG, xERA, average exit velocity and barrel rate. Crawford has performed better in Fenway but allowed 3 earned runs to Toronto at home earlier this season in a 4-1 loss. Three of his four pitches have an xBA of .250 of higher and he doesn’t go very deep in games.
When the starters exit the game, I favor the Toronto bullpen. The Jays have the deeper and more reliable unit that has been playing well since the all-star break. Look for Toronto to finish off the series with a convincing win.
Be sure to check out our Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox predictions
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