Javan Shouey
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For the last 14 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and I’m more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Monday’s MLB slate.
Michael Kopech (CWS) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
The Kansas City Royals are in a funk offensively against right-handed pitching. The last 8 right-handed starters to face the Royals have combined to allow a .170 OBA, 0.96 WHIP and 1.65 ERA with each of them holding Kansas City to 2 or fewer earned runs. When looking back even further, 18 of the last 24 right-handed starting pitchers have held the Royals under this number. In the last 30 days, the Royals rank 20th in ISO, 23rd in OPS, 24th in wOBA, and 24th in BB%.
The 24th-ranked walk rate is key to me as that is one of the more worrisome aspects of Kopech’s game. The 26-year-old has only an 8th percentile walk rate this season but in his last matchup with KC allowed just 1 walk in 7 IP. Those 7 innings were a season-high for Kopech and he was absolutely dominant. In two starts against the Royals, this season Kopech has allowed 2 runs in each start with only 9 combined hits in 12 IP. He ranks 81st percentile in xBA so if he isn’t issuing free passes, base runners should be hard to come by. In 26 innings during the day, he has allowed an OBA of only .131. Kopech is mainly a 2-pitch pitcher with his curveball and changeup being mixed in sparingly. His fastball is used over 60% of the time but with terrific results. His 95 MPH 4-seamer has allowed an xBA of .197 to match the .196 actual OBA to this point.
The White Sox bullpen is entirely rested after Johnny Cueto gave them 8.2 IP on Saturday and their game was postponed on Sunday. Kopech has his outs line set at 15.5 with juice towards the under, and the Royals have a first 5 innings team total of 1.5. Kopech is over this 15.5 outs line in just half of his games, and I love the value we are getting at a -110 price for 2.5 earned runs. I also love the fact this game will be played in Kauffman Stadium where run scoring is at a premium. With winds blowing in and the park dimensions being larger than most ballparks, I like Kopech’s chances to suppress the Royals’ offensive output once again.
Check out our full game preview for the White Sox vs Royals
Max Scherzer (NYM) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-135)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
Max Scherzer is an ageless wonder. The 38-year-old right-hander has put together another fantastic season when he’s been on the field. He ranks 88th percentile or better in xBA, xERA, K%, BB%, and hard-hit rate. His 92nd percentile swinging strike rate is lethal and his true 5-pitch arsenal leaves batters guessing at times. A worry when backing a pitcher in Yankee Stadium is the favorable hitting conditions, but Scherzer has allowed only 8 home runs in his 109 IP this year. His OBA is just 0.01 higher on the road than at home and he has allowed the same number of home runs in 3.2 more innings of work. Scherzer has a 2.02 ERA and .189 OBA in 98 innings during the night as well.
Scherzer has already faced this Yankees team on July 27. He pitched 7 innings of scoreless baseball with only 5 hits allowed. The last 9 right-handed starters to face the Yankees have combined to allow 9 earned runs in 56.2 IP with none of them allowing more than 2 earned. Overall, the last 12 starting pitchers to face the Yankees have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs. There is concern that Scherzer is likely to go deep into this game given his history and the lack of rest in the Mets bullpen. That being said, 9 of those 12 starting pitchers have gone 6 or more innings of work and 5 of them have thrown into the 7th including Michael Wacha and Jose Berrios. When facing batters the 3rd time through the lineup, Scherzer allows just a .184 OBA and .519 OPS.
Scherzer allowed 4 earned runs to a potent Braves offense in his last outing, but 3 of those were after he left the game and reliever Adam Ottavino allowed a 3-run bomb. He still only allowed 3 hits through 91 pitches. He is under this number in 13/17 games started including 10 straight prior to his last start.
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