Javan Shouey
Don’t miss our 2 best prop bets for Saturday’s stacked MLB slate.
Paul Skenes (PIT) Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-149)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160 odds.
The Colorado Rockies hosted the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday to kick start their series, and the home team quickly fell behind 9-0 after a half-inning of play. Pittsburgh eventually squandered the lead and lost the game despite scoring 16 runs. The Rockies scored 5 runs in the bottom of the 9th to win by a 17-16 final with Dennis Santana recording the loss in his new closer role for the Pirates. While there was no shortage of runs scored in that first matchup, and Coors Field is known for its hitter friendly environment, I am looking to go the other way in Saturday’s matchup. Paul Skenes has a 2.5 earned runs allowed prop this morning and I am looking to take advantage, as we rarely ever see this mark for the dominant right-hander.
Skenes has been arguably baseball’s best pitcher since entering the league, and in 2025 alone he has posted a 1.83 ERA in his first 133 innings. His 2 starts since the all-star break have resulted in 12 scoreless innings with 15 punch outs against the Tigers and Diamondbacks. He now faces a Rockies offense that has been one of the worst over the course of the season. Skenes is able to win by way of both strikeouts and efficiency, but the Pirates have also monitored his workload at times this year. Altogether, Skenes has remained under this 2.5 earned runs allowed mark in 19 of his 22 starts so far, and I won’t ignore his matchup with the Rockies despite the game being played in Coors Field.
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies F5 Under 3.5 (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
I’ve talked about Skenes, now I will talk about Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler. These 3 arms are the best starting pitchers in the sport, in my opinion, and having them all pitch on the same day is a treat as a baseball fan. Skubal has been outstanding this season following his Cy Young campaign in 2024, posting a 2.09 ERA in his first 133.2 innings of work. He is clearly the best left-hander in the sport to me, and my favorite thing about Skubal is his fearlessness and efficiency. Those qualities go hand-in-hand as he fills up the strike zone early and often in counts with his nasty stuff. The Phillies are a quality team that made additions at the trade deadline, but they didn’t really address the middle of their order as many Philadelphia fans hoped they would. I expect a strong outing from Skubal in this spot.
Wheeler has also been terrific in 2025, posting a 2.56 ERA in his 133.2 innings. With 4 earned runs allowed in 2 of his last 3 starts his ERA has jumped from 2.17, but the veteran right-hander is still one of the more dominant arms in the sport. His 0.89 WHIP is the 2nd best mark in the game among starters, as are his 172 strikeouts so far. Talks about retirement in coming seasons has already started, but you would never be able to tell by his performance on the field this season. I expect Wheeler to be fired up for this matchup against Skubal and the Tigers, and I favor the under on 3.5 runs scored within the first 5 innings of this game.
