Javan Shouey
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With a full 15-game MLB slate on tap and plenty of intriguing matchups on the docket, bettors have numerous options to choose from on this jam-packed slate. The betting markets have been moving all morning long, but there are still plenty of prop plays with value, and I found 4 worth discussing below. Let’s dive in, but make sure you also check out our MLB picks for every game today.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) under 1.5 walks allowed (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -120 odds.
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A walks-allowed prop headlining this article is not a common occurrence, but today’s pricing on Zack Wheeler is showing value towards the under. The Phillies ace has showcased extreme command of the strike zone for his entire career, allowing just 6.2% of his opponents to gain a free pass over his 1,323.2 career major league innings. This season that rate has fallen even further as the right-hander has issued just a 4.4% walk rate, a career-best mark and a number that ranks in the 95th percentile this season. His 63.2% first-pitch strike rate sits 2.3% higher than the league average and allows him to dabble outside the zone and induce chases. Wheeler ranks in the 78th percentile in chase rate this season which should help his case today. Overall, Wheeler throws strikes at a 70th percentile clip when compared to other qualified pitchers, and his nasty stuff allows him to live in the zone with success, allowing a below-average zone contact rate for the 7th straight season.
Bo Bichette went down with injury on July 31, and since then the Blue Jays have faced right-handed pitching for a sample of 360 PA, the 9th-most in the league in that span. Their collective walk rate against those right-handed pitchers in that timeframe sits at just 7.8%, a middle-of-the-pack mark and below their season-long 8.1% average. The only batters in Toronto’s projected lineup with an above-average walk rate against right-handers are Brandon Belt, Matt Chapman and Cavan Biggio. Belt did draw a 2nd-inning walk-off against Wheeler in the first matchup this season, but that was Wheeler’s only walk issued across 106 pitches in that game. Active Blue Jay batters have 85 combined PA against Wheeler all time, drawing just a minuscule 5.89% BB%. Wheeler walks a lower rate of right-handed batters, with that mark falling to 3.4% this season, and Toronto is likely to have 5 or more RHB in the order tonight due to their lack of platoon options.
While Wheeler has a lengthy workload, providing some cause for concern to an under on a small number, the Phillies did have yesterday off and are available to relieve him should he run into trouble. His start earlier this season against Washington was the last time I took his under on walks. He issued a lead-off walk and allowed 7 earned runs in under 4 innings, but still remained under this number. There are plenty of outs to this prop with a pitcher of his command. This season alone the right-hander has remained under 2 walks in 18 of his 23 starts, including each of his last 7 and 11 of his 12 road outings. At -120 or better odds, this is worth a play to me.
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Adrian Houser (MIL) under 15.5 outs recorded (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -140 odds.
Adrian Houser is going to have a tough time pitching into the 6th inning of today’s matchup for a multitude of reasons. For starters, Houser simply isn’t a great pitcher. The 30-year-old right-hander has posted a 4.38 ERA this season with a 4.44 xERA, 4.22 FIP and 4.66 SIERA behind it. Those marks generally fall in line with his 4.24 FIP and 4.61 SIERA. He is simply a serviceable back-end starter with a low floor and low ceiling. Today, I expect his performance to be closer to his floor. Houser ranks in just the 8th percentile in hard-hit rate this season and allows a 15th percentile xBA. Given that he doesn’t strike many batters out with his 16th percentile K%, that batted-ball profile is undesirable with so many balls put in play. As a ground ball pitcher, his BABIP has naturally seen an increase as a result of the new shift rules, and his GB% also sits 6.5% below his career-average mark this season.
Secondly, Houser doesn’t have a very long leash, averaging just 88.7 pitches per start this season. With an average of 23.3 batters faced per start across his last 7 outings, Milwaukee has been hesitant to allow him full leeway the third time through the order. His last start wasn’t the best, allowing 4 earned runs to the Rockies, but he still only had thrown 67 pitches through the first 5 frames. Despite the low workload, Houser was pulled from the game, staying under today’s 15.5 line. The Brewers had yesterday off as a team, and thus have a rested bullpen with nobody throwing more than once in the last 3 days.
Then there is the matchup itself. Houser faces the daunting task of taking on a patient and explosive Dodgers lineup. Los Angeles ranks 4th in baseball as a team this season with 3.96 pitches per PA, and in the last 30 days their 10.5% BB% against right-handed pitching is the 2nd-highest mark. In that same span, they rank 3rd in both wOBA and SLG while 7th in hard-hit rate and their 116 wRC+ is a healthy mark. Houser has been worse on the road this season, allowing a .321 opponent batting average and 4.66 ERA in his 38.2 innings away from home. Warm temperatures in Los Angeles are resulting in an 11% projected home run boost, and the overall park downgrade for Houser should also come into play. While 15.5 is likely the correct line, I believe the juice should be far steeper as finishing after 5 innings is his most likely outcome tonight.
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Baltimore Orioles team total over 3.5 (-125)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
Michael Wacha will make his first MLB start since his July 1 outing against the Reds, as the veteran right-hander has dealt with a shoulder injury that has sidelined him. When asked about building up his strength and endurance, Wacha said, “It’s kind of like building up in spring training. It’s kind of like building up for the season type of deal where each one gets a little bit more soreness because you’re ramping the intensity, increasing the pitch count, the innings, the ups and downs. So, bouncing back and feeling good today, I was really excited about it.” Wacha tossed 46 pitches across 2 innings in AAA on August 5 and has since pitched a simulated game before the weekend. While we shouldn’t expect a full workload like he had been seeing, he should be built up enough to provide 5 innings, if pitching well.
That last part is key, however, as I am skeptical of his performance moving forward for the rest of the season. Wacha has supplied San Diego with 85.2 innings of 2.84 ERA ball, but his underlying metrics point to sharp regression in his future. A 4.20 xERA, 4.63 xFIP and 4.53 SIERA are likely more accurate representations of his current skills, and now coming off injury I expect regression to hit. The Bat, for example, has Wacha slated for a 4.78 ERA across the rest of the season. Wacha has a career-long .295 BABIP and 74% strand rate (or LOB%). This season, however, that BABIP has fallen to .251, and he has been fortunate to strand 80.9% of runners on base. He is generating a career-low ground ball rate, so with fewer easy outs that increased strand rate is a bit curious.
Baltimore has not been in their best offensive form against right-handed pitching lately but is still a deep and potent offense capable of scoring with both power and finesse. Despite not being in elite form, Baltimore has still scored 4 or more runs in 19 of their 30 games since the all-star break, and being on the road today will allow them to have all 9 innings at the plate guaranteed regardless of the score. Cedric Mullins has also returned to give the team a jolt from the left side and on the bases with his elite speed. When Wacha exits the game, the Padres’ bullpen enters, and this month they rank just 22nd in ERA and 23rd in WHIP. The Orioles rank 9th in both hard-hit rate and wOBA while producing a 116 wRC+ in the 7th inning or later this month as well. A 3.5 team total for the Orioles is just something I find worth playing in this matchup.
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Atlanta Braves team total over 5.5 (-132)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
Last but not least, I love the Atlanta Braves’ offense today. That isn’t groundbreaking news to anyone, as most people have some sort of Luis Severino fade on their card today, but this matchup was simply too much to pass up. Even with a juiced 5.5 team total as the home team, I still see value in this line. This Braves lineup is perhaps the best offensive unit of my lifetime, and their extreme depth will prove valuable today. Ozzie Albies has been an iron man for the Braves this season but missed yesterday’s game before being placed on the 10-day IL. There is no team more prepared to deal with injury than the Braves, however, as Nicky Lopez and Vaughn Grissom figure to step into the 2nd base role. Lopez has done nothing but produce at the plate since his acquisition, albeit a small sample, and Grissom had a 121 wRC+ in 156 PA as a 21-year-old last season for the Braves. Whoever starts between them figures to bat at the bottom of the order and will certainly be the least capable bat in the lineup, once again proving how deep this order is.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is on pace for the National League MVP award while Matt Olson is on pace for the home run crown. Austin Riley and Sean Murphy are among the best at their position, and Michael Harris gets a promotion from the 9th spot in the order to the 2-hole left absent with Albies out. Harris, last season’s NL Rookie of the Year, is a top-of-the-order bat on any other team and provides very little downgrade to the top of their order. This lineup is potent against either-handedness, providing value to their team totals later in the game against relievers, but I expect the majority of their damage to be done against Luis Severino tonight.
Severino has been arguably the league’s worst pitcher across his 63.2 innings this season. A 6.65 FIP and 5.01 SIERA are better than his 8.06 ERA, but how much does that really mean? Those underlying numbers still mark him among the worst in the game, and nothing in his game is pointing to improved play. Severino allows 1.88 walks and hits per inning pitched, constantly living with trouble on the bases and playing with fire. That is the worst possible thing you can do against the Braves, as their elite power turns those walks and singles into multi-run homers. Atlanta has hit 229 home runs as a team this season, 43 more than the next closest team. Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario have combined for 40 home runs from the bottom of the order, giving Atlanta 6 guys with 17 or more long balls in the lineup tonight despite Albies’ absence. Severino ranks in the 7th percentile in barrel rate and 2nd percentile in both xBA and xSLG this season. With favorable hitting conditions in Atlanta tonight, and the Braves averaging over 6 runs per game at home in general, this is a great spot to back the Braves batters.
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