Kevin Davies
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It’s a very slow day in baseball with only 5 games happening around the country. The day begins in Cleveland as the Orioles and Guardians clash in the battle of American League powerhouses and the slate concludes with a matchup between the Rockies and Angels in Los Angeles. However, I focused on a different game for my favorite player prop of the day.
Keider Montero (DET) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-150)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Tigers had one of the best 1-2 punches of any starting rotation with Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty. However, Flaherty was moved at the deadline and Detroit’s rotation has become slim, leaving more opportunities for Keider Montero. Montero is Detroit’s #7 prospect and was promoted to the big leagues even though he struggled in Triple-A in the first few months of 2024. The Tigers were hoping that would change when he arrived in Detroit, but he’s actually been much worse. Montero has a 6.38 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and is allowing a .288 xBA, along with several other worrisome statistics. In his last 3 starts, Montero has allowed 16 runs, 23 hits, and 6 home runs in just 15.1 innings.
The rookie has a .289 batting average allowed and .293 xBA in that 3-start span. The bottom line is that Montero has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 6 of his 7 appearances this season, with the only outlier coming against the Guardians. It should only get more difficult for Montero as he faces a Royals lineup that ranks 2nd in batting average and 7th in OPS in the second half of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Montero allow 4 or more earned runs tonight.
