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MLB’s Friday action will begin with an Apple TV+ game between World Series candidates the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays. Meanwhile, we turn our attention to NL All-Star Zac Gallen facing off against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Gallen headlines our top MLB player prop bet but don’t forget to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks) under 5.5 hits allowed (-135)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
With this prop, I tend to avoid matchups where pitchers are facing off against teams they’ve already seen before. But, since we’re practically at the All-Star break it’s hard to avoid that. Zac Gallen was hit hard in his first game against Pittsburgh this season in May. He allowed 8 hits and recorded only 11 outs on the road. On the road is the important part as Gallen has been masterful at home this season with a 1.50 ERA while holding opponents to a .203 batting average.
After a surgical start to the season, the Pirates are starting to fall apart. They’ve found themselves in 4th place in the NL Central and 7.5 games back in the wild-card standings. More importantly, they’ve been woeful against RHP for the last 30 days. They’re hitting at a .221 rate which is 2nd-worst behind the New York Yankees.
Look for Gallen to continue his home dominance where he has gone under this line in 7 of 9 starts and 11 of 18 overall in 2023.
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Hunter Brown (Astros) under 2.5 earned runs (-135)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I’ve targeted Hunter Brown on countless occasions during the first half of the season. He ranks in the 75th percentile in K rate and his fastball velocity leaves hitters in the dust. His strikeout prop intrigues me tonight and is a fine play but I’m turning to his earned runs prop instead.
Brown’s opponents, the Seattle Mariners, have been underwhelming during the first half of the season. They sit at 43-43 but are more than capable of making a second-half push for a wild-card spot. But, with their struggles against RHP, this seems like a great spot to fade them. They’re hitting at the 3rd-worst rate against RHP and striking out at a 25% clip.
The Astros will look to get 6 innings from Brown, who has surpassed that line in half of his starts. But, with a decently rested bullpen, I don’t see him getting pushed past that. The Mariners will most likely eat up Brown’s pitch count with Ks and I trust Brown to work himself out of trouble.
You can also read our MLB mega parlay and YRFI/NRFI Best Bets
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