Kevin Davies
Show Bio
Yesterday was quite the day in baseball – both on and off the field. The trade deadline is at 6 PM tonight, which means it’s the last day for contenders to stock up with another bat on the bench or reliever in the bullpen. I expect plenty of movement throughout the day, but let’s focus on tonight. I’ve found two player props to lock in tonight (assuming no trades), so let’s jump into it!
Hunter Brown (HOU) to record a win (+115)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Hunter Brown’s turnaround has been incredible to watch. Houston’s young ace was one of the worst pitchers in baseball with a 9.78 ERA after his first six starts, but he’s been a completely different pitcher in the last two months. Brown was 4-0 with a 1.16 ERA in 5 starts in June, and he’s 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA in 5 starts in July. He has the opportunity to win his 10th game tonight, which would be his fourth win in his previous four starts and ninth in his last 10. In that 10-game span, Brown has limited hitters to a .230 batting average, a .204 xBA, a 26% strikeout rate, and an incredible 26% hard-hit rate. Tonight, he takes on a Pittsburgh lineup that ranks 24th in OPS and wRC+ since the All-Star break. Plus, Brown has allowed just 2 runs and 12 hits in his last 19 innings at home. I’m confident Brown will keep the Pittsburgh lineup limited while the Houston offense gets a few against Bailey Falter. At plus odds, it’s worth the risk to get Brown to record his 10th win of the year.
Robbie Ray (SF) over 6.5 strikeouts (-115)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
After a year and a half away from the game, Robbie Ray is back and better than ever. The 2021 Cy Young winner has missed the last 18 months rehabbing his elbow from Tommy John surgery. His career with the Mariners didn’t last long since he completed only 33 starts for Seattle, but he has the chance to make the most of a new opportunity in San Francisco. Last week the lefty made his Giants debut against the Dodgers and had plenty of rust to shake off. In the 1st inning, Ray hit two batters, walked two and threw two wild pitches. He looked very uncomfortable on the mound, but it appeared to just be nerves since he settled in nicely after. Ray completed 5.0 innings and did not allow a hit while punching out eight batters. His command was fantastic, and his two offspeed pitches looked very sharp. Ray’s second start of the year will be against the A’s in his first outing in front of his home crowd. Oakland has struggled against lefties this season, as they own the sixth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws. Since Ray recorded eight strikeouts against the Dodgers, I like his chances of getting seven against the Athletics.
