JutPicks
Show Bio
Baseball is back! After a much-needed All-Star Break for many teams, MLB Friday presents bettors with a full 15-game slate. Let’s dive into our MLB player prop bets for today, July 19, but don’t forget you can also find out our experts’ MLB picks for each of today’s matchups.
Trea Turner (PHI) Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The first game back after the All-Star Break can be tricky for some hitters and pitchers, including players who participated in the All-Star Game. Nonetheless, I’m hopeful Trea Turner can carry his momentum from the first half of the season into tonight. The All-Star starting shortstop put together an impressive start to July. In 12 games, Turner is hitting .417 with eight home runs – three of which came off left-handed pitching.
Tonight, Turner and the Phillies potent offense will face off against LHP Martin Perez and his 5.79 xERA. I expect an onslaught, with most of the Phillies core hitters having registered at least 10 at-bats against the veteran. Turner, in particular, has four hits off Perez, with two of them coming last season in the season’s opening series. Turner will have plenty of ways to eclipse this prop, and with potentially five at-bats tonight on the road, I’ll side with the hot bat.
Check out our Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction.
Jack Flaherty (DET) Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-145)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The vig is unkind to us, but this is a prop I want action on tonight. After Jack Flaherty missed his first start in July, he made quick and easy work of a talented Cleveland Guardians lineup in his return to the rotation. He allowed just two hits across six innings on 83 pitches. Tonight, Flaherty gets a disappointing Toronto Blue Jays lineup that has struggled in their careers vs the RHP.
The advanced metrics are stunning for Flaherty. He ranks in the 89th and 79th percentiles in xBA and xERA while registering a career-high in K% and career-low in BB%. If you’re uncomfortable with laying the vig, his “outs recorded” line of 17.5 is one I would pivot to. But with a rested bullpen and him making his second start after missing the previous one, his “hits allowed” prop makes the most sense to me.
