Javan Shouey
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Yesterday’s slate of MLB games was a nice welcome back from the All-Star break. Today’s slate appears to have even more opportunities to profit, and plenty of interesting starting pitching matchups. With the trade deadline looming and numerous teams trying to figure out if they are going to be buyers or sellers, these games are extremely crucial. My favorite prop bet for today is in the early Padres at Phillies matchup. Let’s dive in!
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Blake Snell (Padres) over 7.5 strikeouts (-115) (to win 0.75U)
Added 0.25U to over 7.5 strikeouts (-155) following release of lineups.
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Risking 1.25U to win 1.00U total.
Blake Snell has been baseball’s best pitcher since May 25. Since that date the former Cy Young winner has made 9 starts spanning 53 innings of work. In those 53 innings he has allowed only 4 combined earned runs while posting a 0.94 WHIP. The left-hander has racked up a remarkable 84 strikeouts in that span as well, and in his last 7 starts he has a swinging strike rate of 18.3%. His 14.9% swinging strike rate on the season ranks 4th-highest among qualified pitchers. Snell uses a 4-pitch mix to keep batters off balance. His 4-seam fastball leads the way with 51.6% of his usage and has accounted for 52 of his 132 Ks. He uses 3 secondary pitches with his changeup, curveball and slider all being thrown at least 14.4% of the time. Those offerings each have a whiff rate of at least 50.3% this season, and he uses all of his pitches in 2 strike counts.
Snell’s changeup is saved solely for right-handed batters and is his main secondary offering against that handedness. Right-handers are hitting .167 against that pitch with a wOBA of only .236. He uses his slider against either handedness, but it has actually been more effective against right-handed batters. Against lefties his main secondary strikeout pitch becomes the curveball with a 33.3% put-away rate. Snell has recorded 8 or more strikeouts in 6 of his last 7 outings with 5 of those games seeing 10 or more punch-outs posted. That includes 11 Ks in his last outing against the Mets. Despite the All-Star break, Snell had only 6 days of rest between starts and should see his typical workload. That workload is his 97.9 pitches per start average. This early game is also the first leg of a doubleheader so Snell should see his full leash.
These are massive games for San Diego as the next couple of weeks could decide if they are buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. A strong outing from Snell after yesterday’s 8-3 win could spark a run in the 2nd half. The Phillies are a solid matchup for Snell in the strikeout department on paper as well. Since June 1 the Phillies have the league’s 7th-highest swinging strike rate while chasing pitches outside the zone at the 7th-highest rate. Their chase contact rate during that span ranks 11th-lowest while their zone contact rate is the 9th-worst. Against left-handed pitching in that span specifically the Phillies have the league’s 6th-highest K% at 26.6%. I would like to see the umpire and lineup for the Phillies before staking a full unit, but with Snell’s recent form and ability to generate swinging strikes, I am willing to invest early at this price.
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