Kevin Davies
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It’s a getaway day for most teams in baseball which means plenty of day games. That includes the matchup between the Pirates and Brewers, which starts at 2:10 pm ET in Milwaukee. After analyzing the smaller slate, I’ve picked out my best MLB player prop bet for today and it’s involving Paul Skenes. Let’s dive right in and see if we can continue our red-hot 15-5 run! You can also find out our experts’ MLB picks for today’s big matchups.
Paul Skenes (PIT) Under 7.5 strikeouts (+110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Just a year after winning a National Championship with LSU, Paul Skenes can add All-Star to his resume. The Pirates starter has been phenomenal this year with a 2.12 ERA and a 2.85 xERA in 10 starts, and his high-velocity fastball has captured the attention of the league. Skenes ranks in the 99th percentile in fastball velocity which has led to him ranking in the 96th percentile in strikeout rate. However, I’m going against the crowd and taking the under on his strikeout line.
It’s not because Skenes has been struggling — it’s because of his opponent. The Brewers have had one of the most productive lineups in baseball as their young lineup mixed with a Christian Yelich resurgence has been a perfect combination. Milwaukee’s lineup is filled with contact hitters from the leadoff spot to the 9-hole, and that has made their order very difficult to strike out. In fact, the Brewers have the 6th-lowest strikeout rate in baseball in the last 14 days. I do think that Skenes will still get plenty of swings and misses, but the Brewers know to jump on his four-seam fastball early to avoid the slider. I’m projecting 6 strikeouts for Skenes tonight, which gives this MLB player prop bet great value at plus-money odds.
Don’t miss out on our expert’s MLB parlay picks for today’s games at +1022 odds
