Ahaan Rungta
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It’s a loaded MLB slate, and I’ve found some spots of value for the nightcap. Here are my two best player prop bets for the evening games on Thursday, June 8. Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game on Thursday.
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Alex Verdugo (BOS) Over 0.5 runs scored (-110)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing; recommended 0.50u wager.
This prop has quietly been a wagon this year even though the Red Sox have recently had some consistency issues with their offense. Alex Verdugo has scored a run in 28 of his 46 starts batting leadoff this year. That will be the case today against the Guardians starting pitcher Aaron Civale.
Although Civale has had decent results in 3 starts this year with a 2.04 ERA, that has been accompanied with a 4.13 xFIP and 4.56 SIERA. In his career, he has posted a 4.17 SIERA, so expect Boston’s offense to produce a bounceback performance after getting quieted for just 2 runs last night by Tanner Bibee and the Guardians bullpen. This year, Civale’s xFIP has skyrocketed to 4.85 against left-handed hitters; that is music to the years of Verdugo, who has posted an elite 138 wRC+, .377 wOBA, and 40.6% HardHit% against right-handed pitching. Civale throws a high dose of cutters and curveballs and his primary pitch types and Boston ranks #13 and #3 in run value/100 against those two pitches on the season, respectively. Expect them to do some damage against this backend-arm and Verdugo, the on-base machine, to be part of it.
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Framber Valdez (HOU) Under 2.5 earned runs (-120)
Line available at BetMGM at time of publishing; recommended 0.50u wager.
Another prop with a quietly-sky-high hit rate—a reigning All-Star and MVP vote-getter, the Astros’ ace Framber Valdez is posting a career-best 2.97 SIERA and 2.70 xFIP, among the league’s elite this season. The Blue Jays have been an untrustworthy offense this season and have been particularly declining against left-handed pitchers. They have posted a 105 wRC+ against left-handed pitching in the first six innings this year (#18 in MLB). Over the last 30 days, that is down to an MLB-worst 44 wRC+. In that span, they rank #25 in run value/100 against sinkers, #16 in run value/100 against curveballs, and #24 in run value/100 against changeups. Those 3 pitch types make up for 85% of Valdez’s arsenal this season.
Houston’s southpaw should cook, and in the chance the Blue Jays start giving him some trouble late in his outing, the leash doesn’t have to be long for Valdez to stay in and suffer through the pain. The Astros bullpen is very well-rested, with no reliever throwing more than 22 pitches over the last 3 days. Valdez has stayed under this line in 9 out of his 12 starts this season and 3 of his 4 starts. That trend should continue today as he looks to lead the Astros into a series split across the border.
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