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All 30 MLB teams are in action Sunday, starting with the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates battling it out at 11:35 am ET. Meanwhile, we’ll turn our attention to the White Sox and Detroit Tigers game where southpaw Matthew Boyd is a prime candidate to fade. Let’s dive into our top MLB player prop bets.
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Matthew Boyd (Tigers) Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Matthew Boyd lost all command in his last start against the Texas Rangers. He issued 4 walks and allowed 5 runs in 6 innings. That made it his fourth start this season with at least 3 walks. Those walks drive up Boyd’s pitch count and he hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches in 8 of 10 starts this season, which has resulted in him going under this strikeout line 7 times.
We’re getting this number due to Boyd’s record against the projected White Sox lineup. He has his fair share of strikeouts historically against Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, but it has been years since he saw these hitters as you have to go back to 2020.
The White Sox have been great against southpaws to start the year. They rank in the top 10 in K rate and slugging. Just in the last 30 days, they’ve got even better. Against left-handed pitching, their K rate drops to 18.3%. Boyd and his 33 percentile K% may struggle to put hitters away, especially with a pitch count that seems to top out at 90 pitches. They got 7 innings from Michael Lorenzen yesterday in a game that went 10 innings. I’ll fade the lefty against a presumed righty-stacked White Sox order.
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Taj Bradley (Rays) Over 4.5 strikeouts (-140)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Right off the bat, I usually wouldn’t back a young pitcher facing an offense for the second time in 2 months. But, Taj Bradley is special and he’s coming off the best start of his young career against the Chicago Cubs. Bradley struck out 8 batters and didn’t allow a run in 5.2 innings.
His first game in the big leagues came against this Red Sox team. He struck out 8 batters in 5 innings and his command was special. Speaking of command, the Rays’ #1 prospect ranks in the 94th percentile in BB%. An even better metric for us is his K percentile, where he ranks 95th.
The Red Sox have already released their lineup, and it features hitters at 5-9 with a K rate above 23% against right-handed pitching. He was able to strike out Rafael Devers twice in his first start, so we may get lucky there. Look for Bradley to dominate the bottom of this lineup on the road.
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