Kevin Davies
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We’re nearing the end of June, and that means the MLB All-Star Game is rapidly approaching. But before we can get there, we have 2 more weeks of excellent baseball to enjoy. Tonight isn’t too busy of a night since some teams have the day off to travel or get ready for their next series, but I’ve still found my 2 best MLB player prop bets to lock in. Let’s dive in, but make sure you also read our MLB picks for each of today’s big matchups.
Jack Flaherty (DET) over 6.5 strikeouts (-140)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
What a turnaround it’s been for Jack Flaherty. The 28-year-old wore out his welcome in St. Louis after his walk rate began to spike and injuries began to pile up, but he’s back into his prime in Detroit. In 14 starts, Flaherty owns a 2.72 ERA with a 2.92 xERA and has limited hitters to just a .218 xBA. But more impressively, his strikeout rate has soared to 33.3% — a 10.5% increase since 2023. Plus, his walk rate went from above 10% last season to just 4% this season. Flaherty’s control has never been better and he’s become one of the best swing-and-miss pitchers in the game. In fact, he ranks in the 95th percentile in whiff rate, strikeout rate and walk rate.
Flaherty has recorded 7 or more strikeouts in 5 of his last 7 starts, but it’s important to note that Flaherty left due to injury in one of the 2 starts he didn’t reach 7 strikeouts. He’s facing an Angels lineup that just struck out 8 times against Joey Estes yesterday, so I’m back Flaherty for 7 or more punchouts tonight.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) to record a win (-140)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
This market has become a personal favorite of mine. The reason I continually go back to it is because of the value. For example, the Phillies are -310 to win tonight against the Marlins. That’s an incredibly steep price that I’m not willing to pay, and they’re even -300 to win the first five innings. However, Zack Wheeler to record a win is just -140. All that Wheeler needs to do is pitch at least 5 innings, which he’s done in 14 of 16 starts and in all 9 of his home starts. Secondly, the Phillies need to be winning the game when Wheeler leaves and the bullpen can’t give up the lead. I’m not too worried about that since the Phillies are facing Trevor Rogers, who they’ve already roughed up for 5 runs, 9 hits and 1 home run in just 3.1 innings earlier this season. This is phenomenal value, so I’d suggest taking it before it moves.
