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Friday is set to be one of the better MLB slates we’ve had in some time. Plenty of aces like Zac Gallen, Shane McClanahan, Yu Darvish and more importantly Sandy Alcantara take the mound. Alcantara headlines our top MLB player prop bet.
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Sandy Alcantara, MIA, Under 2.5 earned runs (-140)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
After winning the NL CY Young award last season, Sandy Alcantara has been nothing short of disappointing. But the Miami Marlins are surging. They currently sit second in the NL East and have a chance to climb the NL wild-card standings with a win tonight against the Washington Nationals.
The Nationals are a familiar foe for Alcantara. He faced off against them 5 times last season and registered a 0.90 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .184. For obvious reasons, we can’t bet solely on statistics from last season with different lineups, but Alcantara has dominated this projected lineup. In 79 career at-bats, Nationals hitters have put together a measly 12 hits for a batting average of .151.
Alcantara’s out prop has some value with how few pitches it takes him to register outs. He leads all MLB pitchers with 3.5 pitches per plate appearance and the Nationals see the fewest pitches per plate appearance. But rain is projected in the forecast, so we’ll stick with his earned runs.
Alcantra is coming off one of his best starts of the season. He allowed just 1 run in 7.0 innings against a talented Chicago White Sox offense. Right-handed starters have held the Nationals under this line in 14 of 24 games since the beginning of May, and the Nationals rank in the bottom 10 in on-base percentage.
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Freddie Freeman, LAD, Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-135)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Freddie Freeman finally broke out of his hitless streak last night with an extra-inning game-winner. He drove a deep shot into center field that Luis Robert could not get to with the outfield playing in. Tonight he will face off against the San Francisco Giants, who will open with John Brebbia and then go to LHP Sean Manaea. Freeman has great splits against both pitchers. He has reeled off 4 hits and 2 walks against Brebbia in 87 at-bats while registering 4 hits in 9 at-bats against Manaea.
Freeman crushes the ball from both sides of the plate. He will likely see Manaea twice and with Freeman hitting lefties at a .333 clip, this MLB player prop bet has great value. Freeman should have plenty of runners on base with leadoff hitter Mookie Betts and Will Smith having solid numbers against Manaea, as well.
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