Javan Shouey
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With plenty of interesting interleague series beginning today and all 30 MLB teams in action, baseball fans should have no shortage of entertainment on the diamond tonight. Speaking of those interleague series, San Diego will host Cleveland tonight in the first game of a 3-game set and we have a player prop for that matchup.
Let’s dive in!
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Tanner Bibee, CLE, Over 4.5 strikeouts (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -135 odds.
Cleveland Guardians rookie right-hander Tanner Bibee will make his 9th career MLB start tonight. The 24-year-old has impressed to begin his career, posting a 3.05 ERA (3.27 FIP) across his first 44.1 IP. Bibee utilizes a 4-pitch arsenal with his 4-seam fastball leading the way at 47.9% usage. He focuses on keeping those fastballs elevated in the zone, and his 95.2 MPH heat allows him to reach those spots before the batter in most cases. Keeping his 4-seamer elevated makes his curveball so much more lethal. Both of those pitches follow along the same flight path before his curveball (60 inches of vertical drop) falls out of the zone. This also leads to more looking strikes on his 4-seamer than you may expect. Overall, 28.6% of Bibee’s strikeouts are from a looking 3rd strike. That would rank 23rd among 114 qualified pitchers. San Diego, his opponent tonight, has taken the 7th most looking 3rd strikes this season.
Bibee’s slider and changeup are his most lethal strikeout pitches. Those offerings break horizontally in opposite directions, and his well-rounded arsenal allows him to use the entire plate. They are both thrown a tick under 84 MPH with his curveball sitting 77.3 MPH. To right-handed batters Bibee is primarily a 4-seamer and slider pitcher, with his slider usage jumping all the way to an arsenal high 46% rate. This makes sense given that slider has held right-handed batters to a .169 wOBA with a 38.6% whiff rate and 31.3% put away rate. San Diego has the 4th-highest strikeout rate this season against right-handed sliders. Against left-handed bats his pitch usage becomes more spread out. Lefty batters see Bibee’s slider usage fall below 14% while his curveball jumps to 11.7% usage and his changeup sees 24.7% usage. That changeup will be massive in this matchup. San Diego is expected to send out 5 left-handed batters. Against right-handed changeups this season the Padres have the 9th-highest K% as a team. San Diego’s projected balanced lineup is of no concern for Bibee, as his strikeout rate is just 1.8% lower against left-handed batters. The return of Manny Machado adds a lethal bat but also adds a potential strikeout target.
The rookie pitcher is coming off an outing against Boston in which he recorded only 2 strikeouts in 5.0 innings. That was a tough matchup, however, and Bibee has still covered this 4.5 line in 5 of his 8 MLB starts so far. That includes 4 times where he has recorded 6 or more punch outs and his career high so far is 9 against the Cardinals. Betting this prop before umpire info is admittedly a bit risky, but with the initial -110 price offered I am willing to make that investment. Bibee has had a consistent workload with at least 90 pitches in 7 of his 8 starts this season. We can expect at least 5.0 innings of work on average, but the right-hander has entered this 6th inning 5 times, completing it 3 times, and even pitching 7.2 innings against the Angels. Look for Bibee to produce another solid outing for the Guardians and record 5 or more strikeouts.
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Los Angeles Dodgers first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
Fading Lance Lynn in his current form against one of the league’s best offenses is something I woke up looking to do. Los Angeles has been dominant against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 3rd in wOBA and 1st in ISO entering today’s game. The Dodgers’ elite plate discipline allows them to work counts and find the pitch they desire. As a team they rank 4th in pitches per plate appearance, and against right-handed pitching they are 1 of 2 teams to sport a double-digit BB%. Lynn has issued his highest BB% since the 2018 season and is notorious for getting frustrated on the mound. Los Angeles averages the 5th most runs per game in the first 5 innings (3.05), but that number jumps to 3.43 when at home, the 3rd-highest mark in MLB. Dodger Stadium is a home run friendly park, and with wind blowing out tonight Ballpark Pal is projecting a 6% boost in home run chances. The Dodgers are tied with Tampa Bay for the most home runs this season (113) and Lynn has allowed 16 longballs this year, the 3rd most behind Yusei Kikuchi and Jordan Lyles.
The 36-year-old right-hander has labored through his first 13 starts of 2023. While Lynn’s 6.72 ERA is higher than his 5.30 FIP, that FIP is by far a career-worst mark and ranks 3rd worst among all qualified pitchers this season. His 42.1% hard hit rate ranks 34th percentile while his 10.6%-barrel rate is 18th percentile. Lynn utilizes a 5-pitch arsenal. His 4-seamer is used 43.8% of the time but has been demolished with a .627 SLG and .414 wOBA against it. He has allowed 9 of his 16 home runs on that pitch alone, and the Dodgers are lethal against 4-seamers. Against right-handed 4-seamers specifically, Los Angeles ranks 9th in wOBA and 4th in ISO. Lynn’s next most used offering is his cutter. While the Dodgers are below league average against that pitch, Lynn’s cutter is also below league average as it ranks as his 2nd-worst pitch in terms of run value. Lynn’s sinker, curveball and changeup make up his remaining 29.3% pitch usage. All 3 of those pitches are offerings that the Dodgers demolish, ranking 1st, 6th and 4th in ISO against those respective pitch types, and 3rd or higher in RV/100 against them.
Lynn has allowed 8 of his 13 opponents to score 3 or more runs against him in the first 5 innings this season. That includes each of his last 2 starts. His last outing was against the Yankees, who were missing both Aaron Judge and Josh Donaldson. New York’s struggling offense still scored 5 runs off him, knocking him out of the game after 5 innings of work. The Dodgers have cleared this 2.5 mark in the first 5 innings in 10 of the last 14 games that they have faced a right-handed starting pitcher. Active Dodger bats have a combined .368 OBP against Lynn in 106 combined plate appearances. With his 1.56 WHIP this season ranking as the 2nd-worst mark of his career, I look for plenty of run scoring opportunities for the Dodgers.
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