Kevin Davies
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I hope you like day baseball because 5 games have a first pitch scheduled for before 7:00 pm ET for today’s MLB slate! After that, there is plenty of baseball at night all across the country. After diving into the MLB player prop market, I found 2 best bets to make for today, with one occurring in the afternoon and the other at night. I’m on a 4-0 run with my MLB player prop bets in this article series, so let’s keep that run going! You can find out our MLB picks for today’s matchups, but for now, let’s dive into today’s best MLB player prop bets.
Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-142)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Reynaldo Lopez has blossomed into an elite starting pitcher. In 11 outings, the right-hander has a 1.85 ERA and has allowed 3 earned runs or more in just one start. His fastball, slider, curveball combination has been the key to his success, but he’s not a strikeout-first type of pitcher. Although his season strikeout rate is above 24%, he’s stayed below this line in 3 of his last 5 starts. More importantly for today, he’s facing an Orioles team that doesn’t seem to have a weakness. That has led to Baltimore having the 10th-lowest strikeout rate in the last 2 weeks. In the first 2 games of the series, Max Fried and Spencer Schwellenbach both had only 3 punchouts against the O’s. It’s a little juiced, but the under at this line has a lot of value.
Read our full Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles predictions
Joe Ryan (MIN) Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I understand that an important reason why Joe Ryan’s strikeout number is set so high is his opponent, but it’s still far too high. Oddsmakers might have gotten scared into raising Ryan’s line after Michael King’s 12-strikeout day against the A’s yesterday. However, Ryan has recorded 8 or more strikeouts in just 4 of his 13 starts in 2024. Plus, he’s gone under this line in 6 of his last 8 outings. Don’t get me wrong — he’s almost certainly going to have success against the struggling A’s lineup, but expecting 8 punchouts or more is a little high. I have Ryan projected for 6 to 7 strikeouts on Thursday night, so I’ll happily take the under 7.5 at reasonable odds.
