Javan Shouey
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While it is worth mentioning that rain could play a role across the MLB landscape today, this slate is still showing some great value in my opinion. With several enticing games and numerous betting angles worthy of consideration, let’s hope for a great day of baseball this first Saturday in May.
There are 3 plays standing out to me that I have highlighted below, so let’s dive in!
Andrew Abbott (CIN) Under 5.5 strikeouts (-118)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135. 1u.
Andrew Abbott is someone I bet on numerous times last season, as his minor league track record was impressive when it comes to strikeouts. After 159 strikeouts across 118 innings in A+ and AA during the 2022 season, Abbott struck out 90 more across just 54 frames in AA and AAA last year. These impressive marks earned the southpaw a call-up in early June against the Brewers, a game in which we took his over on strikeouts recorded and he cashed us out with 6 punch outs. While he did pitch well across his 109.1 innings at the big-league level last year, his strikeout rate fell. He did still generate 120 strikeouts in his 21 starts, but he remained under this 5.5 mark in 11 of those outings. This includes 8 of his last 11 starts where opponents seemed to pick up on his stuff better.
To begin 2024, Abbott has seen another drop in his K%, this time falling below a strikeout per inning worked. His 33 innings of work have seen just 27 strikeouts recorded, and his underlying numbers back up his decreased production. His swinging strike rate is sitting at just 6.8% this season, the 5th lowest mark among qualified pitchers behind Cole Irvin, Michael Soroka, Miles Mikolas and Chris Bassitt. His highest single start swinging strike rate was 8.9% against the Phillies. Even last year his 10.9% mark fell to 10.2% in those final 11 starts. Abbott is failing to generate swings on pitches outside the zone, ranking just 2nd percentile in chase rate this season. When opponents to chase they are connecting on those swings at a rate 8.1% higher than league average.
Abbott ranks just 7th percentile in whiff rate this season which is leading to a ton of contact against him. His batted ball profile is worrisome with his flyball rate sitting 13.3% higher than league average and his barrel rate sitting 22nd percentile at 9.5%. Pitching at Great American Ballpark is tough for anyone, let alone a flyball arm against a lethal lineup. The Orioles rank 4th in hard-hit rate, 9th in fly ball rate, 2nd in wOBA, and have a 138 wRC+ against southpaw pitching this season. They will likely stack their lineup with 6 or 7 right-handed batters which has been Abbott’s worse strikeout split in his career. There is also a chance of rain in this game which would help us if we got a rain delay.
Ranger Suarez (PHI) Under 5.5 hits allowed (-115)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140. 1u.
Ranger Saurez has been lights out this season for the Phillies, performing as an absolute ace through his first 6 starts of the season. The southpaw from Venezuela has been a steady piece of the rotation for Philadelphia since the start of 2022, but his performance so far in 2024 has been nothing short of elite. Among qualified pitchers Saurez ranks 2nd in opponent batting average, 8th in K-BB%, 2nd in ERA, 9th in FIP, 2nd in SIERA, and 2nd in ground ball rate.
Ranger is inevitably going to see some regression in his game, as there is no way to sustain a .189 BABIP across a season-long sample size, but there is room for regression with how he is performing and with this prop. Not only is Suarez under this 5.5 hits allowed line in 5 of his 6 starts, but those 5 unders have resulted in 4 or fewer hits each with 4 of them allowing 3 or fewer. This includes his last outing where he tossed 8 innings of 1-run ball against the Padres where he struck out 8 and generated 12 ground ball outs, allowing only 3 base hits.
On the season Suarez ranks 88th percentile in chase rate which draws batters outside of the zone for poor swings. This has resulted in a 99th percentile average exit velocity against his arsenal, and a 92nd percentile hard-hit rate allowed. His xBA sits at .200 which is an 85th percentile mark, and his opponent in the Giants is a tick below league average as an offense against southpaw pitching so far. Their 94 wRC+ is not impressive given they faced Patrick Corbin and Jose Quintana, and those 2 arms were the only among 8 left-handed starters to allow more than 5 hits to the Giants. I like Suarez to fire off another strong start.
Christian Scott (NYM) Over 4.5 strikeouts (+100)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130. 1u.
After 2 plays highlighting the under, I will give an over for my 3rd play. It is a fun one as well, with New York Mets pitching prospect Christian Scott making his MLB debut. Jack Leiter was the first rookie I bet on this season, and it was unsuccessful, but the past couple years have shown great results when betting on MLB debuts. This is especially true for nicely priced 4.5 lines on highly rates prospects. Scott is the Mets top pitching prospect after being selected in the 5th round of the 2021 draft. The 24-year-old righty has produced a double-digit K/9 at every minor league stop including a 12.79 K/9 through 25.1 AAA innings this season. Scott has seen as many as 95 pitches in his 5 starts so far this season but will likely see around 85 or 5 innings today. That is still a healthy workload for a 4.5 line in this matchup. Scott generated 9, 10, 7, and 8 punch outs in his first 4 outings of the year before only 2 in his last start. That was his 2nd consecutive outing against the same Colombus Clippers team, however, so we can take that outlier number with somewhat of a grain of salt.
He has generally been a low walk rate guy in the minors, showcasing solid command alongside his impressive strikeout totals. Scott utilizes a 4-pitch mix with his 4-seam fastball taking the large portion of the workload. He uses both a sweeper and slider as well as a changeup for his secondary offerings. The glaring concern on paper for Scott currently is an alarming fly ball rate and 7 home runs allowed in these 5 starts, but I still see some reward for the risk we are taking. Tampa Bay is a free-swinging team, swinging at the 6th highest rate of pitches, and the 3rd highest rate of pitches located outside the strike zone. On those chased pitches they have just a league average contact rate, but on pitches inside the strike zone they connect at the 3rd lowest rate. This results in an overall swinging strike rate that sits 4th worst in baseball. While their 23.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching is just 12th worst in MLB, those underlying contact metrics are concerning and suggest their K% could worsen. Overall, each of the last 5, 9 of the last 10, and 18 of 22 right-handed starting pitchers to face the Rays this season have registered 5 or more strikeouts. This includes arms like Colin Rea, Bryse Wilson, and Jonathan Cannon within the last week alone.
