Ahaan Rungta
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We are set for another full day of MLB action with some cheeky spots for betting value. Here are my best player prop bets for Thursday, May 4, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Same Game Parlay: Jack Flaherty (STL) 4+ strikeouts & Cardinals moneyline (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing; recommended 0.50u wager.
It’s not always that line-reading can be this obvious, but this game points to a very sharp side. The Cardinals have lost five straight games and are 10-21 on the season and will have the inconsistent, command-less Jack Flaherty on the mound. The Angels are 17-14 and have 4.11 ERA Griffin Canning on the mound. So why are the Cardinals favored in this game? Vegas knows this is a fantastic get-right spot, and we will buy into it. Flaherty has had trouble being consistent and throwing strikes but his stuff near the zone has still been good this season.
He is in the 55th percentile in hard hit percentage allowed, 62nd percentile in xBA, and 74th percentile in whiff rate. He is primarily doing it with a combination of four-seamers and sliders, the latter of which has been a huge whiff weapon (29.7% whiff%). Over the last 14 days, the Angels rank below league-average in run value/100 against both those pitches. Flaherty has recorded at least four strikeouts in 5 of his 6 starts this season, and over the last 14 days, the Angels’ 23.6% strikeout rate on the road against right-handed pitching ranks #12 in MLB (up to 24.5% in the first 5 innings).
Meanwhile, the Angels will start the right-hander Canning. The Cardinals’ offense has been disappointing this season, results-wise, but they get a good spot for positive regression as they still rank #2 in the sport in hard hit rate. While Canning has also been drawing whiffs in his own right, he has also made mistakes, ranking in the 39th percentile in hard hit rate, 14th percentile in barrel rate, and 25th percentile in xSLG allowed. He is a heavy slider pitcher, making that his primary pitch season; however, even with their offensive struggles this season, the Cardinals still rank above league-average in run value/100 against sliders.
I expect the Cardinals offense to command a lead at some point while the starters are dueling, and I trust their bullpen, likely fully ready to go to avoid a sweep to hold a lead. St. Louis’ relievers rank No. 5 in SIERA and No. 9 in Pitching+ this season.
Check out today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets!
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Wade Miley (MIL) to record a win: Yes (+175)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing; recommended 0.50u wager.
Again, we’re targeting an “avoid-the-sweep” situation. For this prop, Brewers starter Wade Miley must pitch at least five innings, the Brewers must have a lead when he exits, and that lead cannot be surrendered by the bullpen at any point. If you do not have this prop available on your book, you can pivot to a “first 5 innings” prop on the Brewers on the moneyline or run-line, but I heavily prefer the value of Milwaukee giving Miley the lead and trusting their bullpen, which ranks around middle-of-the-pack in Pitching+ and will have elite closer Devin Williams available today to shut the door down.
The left-handed Miley has been serviceable as a back-end starter this season, and command has been his friend. He ranks in the 71st percentile in hard hit percentage allowed and has used his changeup as a primary putaway weapon, allowing just a .254 xwOBA and an 83.2 mph average exit velocity against that pitch. This season, the Rockies’ offense ranks No. 29 in MLB in run value/100 against changeups and No. 29 in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
Meanwhile, Colorado will start right-handed soft-tosser Connor Seabold, who simply might be purely an innings-eater at this point of his career. He is making his first start of the season, and as a reliever, he posted a 4.89 xFIP and has allowed plenty of hard contact with his mediocre four-seam fastball. Milwaukee’s offense ranks No. 13 in run value/100 against four-seamers this season. Miley has pitched at least 5.0 innings in all of his starts this season, even when he has gotten roughed up a bit. Expect him to easily win this pitching duel against Seabold and Milwaukee to avoid the sweep.
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