Kevin Davies
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Welcome to another day in the long, but exciting Major League Baseball season. For today, it’s a small slate of games as plenty of teams are traveling to their weekend series. That has limited the amount of player prop options, but I’ve still found two best bets to lock in today.
Jack Flaherty (DET) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
This has been a spot that I look for every time he takes the mound. Jack Flaherty has rejuvenated his career in Detroit and has solidified himself as an ace. In 10 starts, Flaherty owns a 3.84 ERA with a 2.77 xERA. The biggest improvement in his game is his control, which was once the talk of the league since he owned a walk rate that was nearly double the league average. But in 2024, Flaherty has a 33.3% strikeout rate (95th percentile) and a 3.7% walk rate (94th percentile).
More importantly for this bet, Flaherty has recorded at least 7 strikeouts in 7 of his 10 starts and in 4 of his last 5 starts. Plus, Flaherty is making this start on 6 days of rest instead of his usual 4 or 5 days. He’s well rested and facing a Boston lineup that has the 7th highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and 2nd highest strikeout rate at home. Flaherty should rack up the punchouts tonight.
Zac Gallen (ARI) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
By now, a lot of people have recognized that Zac Gallen is not the same pitcher on the road as he is at home. Arizona’s ace had dramatic home and away splits last season and has continued the trend through the first 2 months of this year. At Chase Field, Gallen owns a 2.05 ERA. But on the road, his ERA balloons to 4.33. His strikeout rate is also affected by his drastic splits as he’s recorded 4, 6, and 3 strikeouts in his last 3 road starts. Unfortunately for the Snakes, their ace performs a lot differently away from home. Tonight, he faces a Mets lineup that certainly needs to make a statement after Jorge Lopez’s outburst last night. Gallen should finish with 4 or 5 strikeouts tonight.
