Kevin Davies
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Thursday’s are usually slower days in baseball as plenty of teams are enjoying a much-needed day off or traveling to their next series. That’s the case today since only 16 teams are taking the field. The day begins with some early baseball in the Bronx and ends in the South Side of Chicago, so let’s get into my favorite MLB player props for today! You can also find out our MLB picks for each matchup.
Jack Flaherty (DET) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I had to pinch myself at first because this line didn’t seem right. Jack Flaherty has recorded at least 6 strikeouts in 8 of his 9 starts this season. He ranks in the 95th percentile in strikeout rate and 97th percentile in whiff rate. Flaherty gets plenty of chases with his slider and curveball which are his main punch-out pitches. With all of this in mind, I had his strikeout line set at 6.5.
The Blue Jays pride themselves on putting the ball in play and avoiding swings and misses. However, Flaherty has gone deep into games constantly this season. He’s pitched at least 6 innings in all but one outing. That means he only needs one strikeout per inning to reach this mark if he goes his usual length. This line is disrespectful to Flaherty, so back him to record at least 6 punchouts tonight.
Read our full Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers predictions
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) to Record the Win (-105)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
This might be my new favorite market because of the value. For example, the Orioles are approximately -250 favorites to win the game. That makes the O’s the heaviest favorite on the board tonight. It makes sense since the Orioles are facing Mike Clevinger and the White Sox. Clevinger was a late signing by the White Sox and he’s only made 3 starts, but he’s been rocked in his limited time on the mound. He owns a 7.13 xERA and .306 xBA in just 11.1 innings. Oddsmakers expect the O’s to tee off on Clevinger and the weak Chicago bullpen.
In order to qualify for the win, 2 things need to happen. First, Grayson Rodriguez will need to pitch at least 5 innings. That is a feat he has accomplished in 6 of his 7 starts this season. Secondly, and more important, the O’s need to be winning for good when Rodriguez leaves the game. That means the O’s will need to be winning when Rodriguez exits and not give up the lead. That shouldn’t be too stressful since Rodriguez has thrown back-to-back shutouts in his last 2 starts and the O’s bullpen is well rested. At near even odds, this feels like a steal.
Read our full Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox predictions
