Ahaan Rungta
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It is a minuscule 6-game MLB day today but I’ve found a spot on an underrated player to back in a fantastic matchup. Here is my best MLB player prop bet for Thursday, May 18, featuring a matchup between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays. Make sure you also check out our MLB picks for all of today’s matchups.
Jake Bauers (NYY) over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs (+110)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing; recommended 0.50u wager.
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The Yankees will close out a series with the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in what has been an intense set, most recently showcasing a 0-0 game in extra innings on Wednesday. The bats should come alive again on Thursday facing Toronto starter José Berríos, who can be good, featuring a solid 3.78 SIERA, but does pound the strike zone shamelessly at times, allowing plenty of damage. Against left-handed batters this season, Berríos has allowed a .522 SLG, .371 wOBA and 24% HardHit%. He has also been noticeably better at home but has still allowed six hits and two walks to 29 left-handed hitters faced in Toronto this season. That’s why it makes sense to target one of the Yankees’ effective left-handed bats, Jake Bauers.
This season, Bauers has primarily been in the lineup for right-handed pitching matchups and has posted a 114 wRC+ with a .222 ISO, .336 wOBA, 15.2% BB%, and 44% HardHit% against right-handers. Although his results have fallen off a cliff so far on the road, he has still barrelled up the ball but has been rewarded with an unsustainable .000 BABIP, so we will chalk that up to a small sample-size trap. Expect him to do damage against Berríos, whose primary strike-throwing pitch to left-handed hitters is a four-seam fastball.
Bauers has posted a .429 xwOBA, 50.0% HardHit%, and .637 xSLG against four-seamers this season. His “over 0.5 hits” prop is juiced to -160 on DraftKings Sportsbook but I’d rather snag the value on a market that wouldn’t get severely burned by walks and would benefit from other Yankee hitters creating run-scoring opportunities, which I expect to be the case after their shutout last night.
Over the last two weeks, the Yankees offense ranks No. 1, No. 12, No. 13, and No. 10 in run value/100 against four-seamers, changeups, sliders and curveballs, respectively. That bodes well against Berríos, who throws a heavy dose of four-seamers, changeups, and slurves. Expect baserunners for the Bronx Bombers today and back Bauers to be a part of that action.
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