Ahaan Rungta
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It is just a six-game menu on the slate for MLB today but I’ve found a spot on a player with great value to fade in the betting market. Here is my best MLB player prop bet for Thursday, May 11, featuring a matchup in the nightcap. But make sure you also check out our MLB picks for each of today’s games, as well as our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets, where our experts are on a 14-4 run.
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Alex Cobb (SF) under 4.5 strikeouts (-116)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing; recommended 0.50u wager.
The veteran right-hander Alex Cobb has made 8 starts this season and only stayed under this line in 2 of those games; so why is the line this low? Everything about this matchup suggests it’s time to fade Cobb.
In 2022, Cobb’s first year as a San Francisco Giant, he posted a 29.4% CSW% and ranked around middle-of-the-pack in whiff rate. In 2023 so far, he has dipped to a 27.7% CSW%, which would be the lowest of his career since 2018, and is in the 27th percentile in whiff rate. He has been the beneficiary of some fantastic matchups, as 3 of the teams he faced rank in the top 10 in MLB in K% against right-handed pitchers and every single team he has faced has posted higher than 20% K% against right-handed pitchers on the season. None of that is true against tonight’s Arizona Diamondbacks matchup.
For starters, Arizona has the ability to stack 6 left-handed hitters in their lineup, which is bad news for Cobb who has stark splits, allowing a .305 wOBA and posting just a 14.7% K% against left-handed hitters this season. On the season, Arizona has posted a 19.1% K% against right-handers, the lowest in MLB, and over the last two weeks at home, that number is down even further to 18.2%. In that span, they rank No. 4 in Contact% and No. 4 in run value/100 against curveballs, the pitch Cobb has primarily used for whiffs against left-handed hitters.
To make matters worse, both of Cobb’s starts this season with fewer than 5 strikeouts happened to be when he had just four days of rest. In one of those starts, he actually cruised for a complete game shutout but still only notched 4 strikeouts. In the other, he got knocked around for 8 hits and finished with just 2 strikeouts. This is the right time to sell high on a declining whiff guy and take this under at a great price.
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