Ahaan Rungta
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We are set for another full day of MLB action on Wednesday with several spots for betting value. Here are my best player prop bets for Wednesday, May 10, both of which feature afternoon games.
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Josiah Gray (WSH) over 5.5 strikeouts (+110)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 0.5u wager.
In his first start of the season, Nationals right-hander Josiah Gray got rocked for 7 hits and 5 earned runs with only 4 strikeouts in 5 innings. However, that was against the mighty Atlanta Braves. Since that start, Gray has been sharp, posting a 2.14 ERA, 3.47 FIP, and 23.1% K% in 6 starts. He recorded at least 6 strikeouts in 4 of those starts and today he gets a Giants offense that has posted a 25.1% home K% against right-handed pitchers over the last 14 days, good for 6th-highest in Major League Baseball.
In that span, they rank No. 29 in O-Contact% and 30th in Contact%, which should play right into the hands of Gray’s 64th percentile whiff rate and 60th percentile chase rate. As a possible helping hand, the expected home plate umpire for this game is Brian O’Nora, one of the most notorious pitcher-friendly umpires in the league. We wouldn’t mind a few called strikes off the plate for this bet.
Even though Gray is on just 4 days of rest, I expect the Nationals to let him work through at least 5 innings, as he has in every start this season. Gray has recorded at least 6 strikeouts in 3 of his 4 starts on 4 days of rest this season, making this prop worth the plus-money juice.
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Kevin Gausman (TOR) over 6.5 strikeouts (-134)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 0.75u wager.
In his last start, Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman was rocked for 10 hits and 8 earned runs with just 4 strikeouts against the Boston Red Sox, however that was while facing one of the best offenses in the league on just 4 days of rest. Today, he gets a more exploitable Phillies lineup on 5 days of rest and it looks like we have a buy-low opportunity with this line.
Gausman has recorded at least 7 strikeouts in 5 of his 7 starts this season and all 4 when he has had at least 5 days of rest. The Blue Jays bullpen is shallow and has been made to grind over the last couple of series, so Toronto’s ace will be asked to go deep in this game, as his pitching outs line of 18.5 reflects. Going back to last year, Gausman has recorded at least 7 strikeouts in 9 straight regular-season starts in which he has pitched at least 5.0 innings.
Gausman has posted an 81st percentile whiff rate and 96th percentile chase rate this season and his primary whiff weapons have been a split-finger fastball and a slider. The Phillies offense has recently benefited from a spark plug with the return of Bryce Harper but over the last 14 days, they are still outside the top 13 in MLB in run value/100 against splitters and sliders. In that span, they also rank 4th in O-Swing%. I’ll pay the juice for this line that is simply too low for a man who ranks in the top 3 in xFIP and SIERA among all qualified MLB starters this season.
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