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MLB Monday presents us with an 8-game slate after a loaded weekend. The premier matchup on paper is between two southpaws who have been sensational this season. MacKenzie Gore and Drew Smyly will battle it out in D.C. with winds of over 14 M.P.H. blowing out. Meanwhile, Luis Garcia has a gift of a matchup against the San Francisco Giants who are fresh off playing in Mexico City. Garcia headlines our top MLB player prop bet. Also, be sure to check out our +885 odds Monday mega parlay.
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Luis Garcia (HOU) Over 17.5 Outs (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Luis Garcia has flipped a switch in his last three starts. He dropped his ERA from as high as 7.71 down to 4.00. Opponents are not only swinging and missing but their chasing Garcia’s pitches as well. He ranks in the top 88th percentile in chase rate. Garcia has yet to allow a run in his last 13 innings pitched but more importantly, it came against the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays.
This MLB player prop has more to do with Garcia’s opponent the San Francisco Giants. The Giants are coming off a 2-game series in Mexico City. The travel and altitude cannot be fun for them. The MLB is doing them no favors with them having a game today but we’re here to take advantage of it. Padres’ pitcher Yu Darvish went 6 innings and struck out 9 Giants batters yesterday. Houston on the other hand is coming off Sunday Night Baseball where fellow starting pitcher Jose Urquidy had to leave in the 6th due to an injury.
Garcia has pitched 6 innings in back-to-back starts and has increased his pitch count in every start this season. Bank on Luis Garcia having his A game against a Giants squad that may have a problem adjusting back to normal.
Washington Nationals +0.5 1st 5 Innings Run Line (-130)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Drew Smyly has prop bettors running to him tonight against a 10-17 Nationals squad. But, the Nationals’ bats haven’t been the problem. Especially against left-handed pitching. They’re hitting at the 3rd best rate against lefties in all of baseball and rarely strike out. Their 15.4% K rate to southpaws is the 2nd best in the majors. Let’s not take anything away from Smyly. He’s been extremely solid in his last few outings against teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. Both of those offenses have been disappointing this year, but they’re filled with star power.
MacKenzie Gore has been just as good. He’s rocking a 3.00 ERA and ranks in the top 87th percentile in K and whiff rate. The Cubs, like the Nationals, are no slouch to southpaws. They rank in the top 10 in on-base percentage and wRC. But I’m backing the 24-year-old and fading the veteran Drew Smyly against an underrated Nationals’ offense.
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