Javan Shouey
Show Bio
We have no shortage of MLB action on this Saturday as a full 15-game slate should provide us with plenty of entertainment. There is a player prop that stands out to me in the Blue Jays vs Angels game. Let’s dive in!
You can bet on these MLB player props with BetMGM, which has the best odds available for one of our props and a great new-customer promotion where you can get a $1,000 deposit bonus! Click here to take advantage of this offer.
Jose Berrios (TOR) over 5.5 hits allowed (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
Jose Berrios’s form has seemingly fallen off a cliff since the start of last season. The former Minnesota Twin signed a 7-year $131 million deal with Toronto but has failed to return any value to this point. He was a terrific fade candidate last season, especially when on the road. Berrios saw his 4.24 ERA at home jump to 6.36 when on the road. Opponents hit .303 against him in his 16 road starts, allowing 101 hits across 80.2 IP. He allowed 6 or more hits in 22 of his 32 starts overall, but 12/16 when on the road. One of those starts was against this Angels team, and I took this same prop. Berrios allowed his 6th hit early on in the 3rd inning, along with 6 earned runs, and was eventually pulled from the game.
Last season he ranked 9th percentile or worse in xBA, xERA and xSLG. Berrios was in the 15th percentile or worse in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity as well. One thing he did well was limit free passes, ranking 79th percentile in BB%, something he has always been good at. With just a 15th percentile whiff rate, the Angels bats should have success putting the ball in play in this matchup. In his first start of the season Berrios allowed 9 hits and 8 earned runs to a Kansas City offense that has otherwise struggled to begin the year. In 74 combined plate appearances against Berrios, this active Angels roster has a .328 batting average and .405 xwOBA. There are a lot of angles supporting a Berrios fade and this is my favorite way to do it.
Check out today’s top YRFI/NRFI best bets
Unibet has arrived, and you can get $100 in bonus bets by signing up right now. Click here to join Unibet and lock in their great new customer bonus.
Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks. Check out the latest MLB prop bets and MLB parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
