Ahaan Rungta
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We have a more-than-full day of MLB games on the ledger for today with 16 matchups on the docket. At first look, that can feel pretty daunting, but we have put in the work for you to find betting value. I’ve picked out my best MLB player prop bet of today’s slate on Tuesday, April 30, 2024. You can also find out our MLB picks for today’s matchups, but for now, let’s dive into my favorite MLB player prop bet.
Matt Olson (ATL) Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Atlanta Braves and Seattle Mariners are coming off an absurd pitching duel where both starters took no-hitters into the late innings. The Mariners pulled off a comeback in the 9th inning but it is time for the Braves’ bats to return to life. The overwhelming belief entering the season was that the ace of the Seattle staff was going to be Luis Castillo and although his overall peripherals have been good to open the season, his splits are significantly worse against left-handed hitters. Lefties like Matt Olson are hitting at a .662 SLG with a 36.0% hard-hit rate and 42.9% flyball rate this season against Castillo, who primarily throws 4-seam fastballs for strikes.
As a team this season, Atlanta ranks #9 in MLB in xSLG against right-handed four-seamers so this is a good spot for the Braves to have some action on the basepaths. Olson should play a big part in driving that with his ability to pop one out of the park and his prowess at driving runners in while hitting in the middle of the order. Olson’s .681 xSLG against right-handed four-seamers is the 2nd-highest on the roster and his 0.5 run value/100 against right-handed sliders (Castillo’s best putaway pitch) is among the leaders of his team. Olson should be able to get the job done early in this game and we’re getting an ace discount on a prop that used to be juiced as high as -175 to open the season. This prop is playable down to a -120 price.
This Matt Olson player prop has the best odds available with DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can instantly earn $200 in bonus bets right now from a $5 wager. Click this link to sign up for DraftKings.
